It is finally here! After 109 days since the NCAA National Championship Game and 75 days since the Super Bowl, we get to see the unofficial start of the 2023 NFL season with the hopes and dreams of several hundred former NCAA players realized or dashed, along with those same hopes of 32 NFL franchises. The NFL Draft, a spectacle unto itself, represents the culmination of a lifetime worth of dreams for so many young men and their families and can alter the direction of a franchise should that team draft wisely. This event gives us the opportunity to see the start of the careers of future NFL stars, players that will go on to lead their teams to victories, to break records, win Super Bowls, become future All-Pros, future MVPs, and yes, even a few NFL Hall of Famers. I am not understating the importance of the event as each year; we truly see history made and lives changed.

What can we expect in this years draft?

Additionally, each year we see surprises in how some players are ultimately evaluated with regard to their fit within the NFL. Some players are selected much earlier than the prevailing wisdom while others find themselves waiting much longer to hear their names announced than what they expected. Each rise and fall are its own unique story, from Aaron Rodgers falling from being potentially the first overall pick in 2005, all the way down to pick 24, to Sebastian Janikowski being selected in the first round at the 17th overall selection, draft history is rife with amazing stores of player pick projection  not quite falling into place the way many thought it ultimately would.

What players draft stock could be affected in this years draft?

With that in mind, let’s take a look at some players in this draft class that might have a longer, or shorter, wait than what their agent may be telling them:

• J. Stroud – By now, many of us have heard the phrase “S2 test score” more times than we can count. This is a bit fascinating as, I would argue, very few of us heard that term prior to a few years ago when it was announced the test would be replacing the Wonderlic test as a means of evaluating NFL players, particularly quarterbacks. Some players that are rumored to have performed well on the test include Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and even Brock Purdy. In fact, much has been made about the results of the test, especially with regard to Purdy, after it was claimed that his rise to possibly becoming the 49ers starting quarterback just a season later, could have been predicted. This, of course, fails to account for Trey Lance suffering a significant injury which made this rise possible. Returning to Stroud, reports leaked in the past week claim that he scored 18 out of a possible 100 on the test. This score has the potential to drop him from potentially being the first overall pick prior to that leak, with some speculating he could fall out of the top ten selections depending on the value that some teams place on the test. This, too, could be an example of one or more teams releasing the score in an effort to produce an artificial drop or to create doubt among other teams all in hopes that Stroud could fall to them. Ultimately, we will find out shortly if these rumors are true or if these tactics worked.
• Jalen Carter – As recently as early March many were talking about Jalen Carter being a surefire Top Five selection in the NFL Draft, with talking of him falling out of the Top Ten selections being viewed as patently ridiculous. However, on March 16, 2023, Carter pled no contest to charges of racing and reckless driving, charges that potentially held a jail sentence of up to two years. The no contest plea has impacted the draft projection of Carter in a clearly negative way with a raging debate on-going. On one side there are people that believe he will barely maintain his hold on a Top Five selection by coming off the board at selection 1.05 to the Seattle Seahawks, while others feel he could fall as far as the 1.10 pick that the Philadelphia Eagles hold. While not a monumental fall, it is a significant drop from being spoken about as the consensus first overall selection to being possibly a borderline Top Ten selection.

STARKVILLE, MS - NOVEMBER 12: Georgia defensive lineman Jalen Carter (88) during the college football game between the Georgia Bulldogs and the Mississippi State Bulldogs on November 12, 2022 at Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville, MS. (Photo by Kevin Langley/Icon Sportswire)

• Calijah Kancey - Calijah Kancey was viewed as a solid Day Two selection prior to the NFL Combine. However, after he left Indianapolis, Kancey’s prospects in the NFL Draft soared. He ran the fastest 40-yard dash time of any defensive lineman in the history of the event with a time of 4.67 seconds. This time edged out fellow Pitt alumni Aaron Donald, a player he is frequently compared to, for the top spot by one one-hundredth of a second. This feat, as well as those comparisons to Donald, have seen Kancey’s draft stock erupt in the time following the NFL Combine with Kancey now expected to be firmly in first round contention
• Anthony Richardson – Much like Kancey, Anthony Richardson’s performance at the NFL Combine wowed many watching, firmly catapulting Richardson into the discussion of being a Top Ten selection. Additionally, with Stroud’s perceived drop, Richardson could benefit in response. While viewed as the fourth-ranked quarterback after the NFL Combine, Richardson is now being ranked by some as the second quarterback likely to be taken off the board after passing Will Levis and Stroud trending downwards.

Ultimately, it is unlikely that all of these scenarios will come to pass. Teams will see value in some players dropping and will scramble to trade up and acquire them. Conversely, some players may be riding a wave of hype that crashes well short of the proverbial shore, finding themselves victims of their agents’ own press releases. Nonetheless, some of what I outline will ultimately come to pass as well. Every year, without fail, some players get drafted earlier than expected while others find themselves on the less pleasant side of that equation.

No matter what position a player ends up being selected, the wonderful thing about professional sports that use a draft system, the player has a chance to prove that they deserved, or did not deserve, their draft position. Some will use it as justification to rest on their laurels, others will use it as fuel to prove the world wrong. In the end, when it comes to the NFL Draft, this intrigue and drama is why we watch. It is also a huge part of what makes the NFL Draft, arguably, one of the most entertaining and highly-watched sports related events that does not occur on the field. Strap in, buckle up, and get the popcorn ready, it is nearly draft time!