DK Metcalf
This is a tough one and could come back to bite me based on the fact that the guy is an absolute talented freak of nature, but I am sticking to the situational issues on this one and I just can’t see it. Starting with the most glaring element is his QB situation. Geno Smith throwing to him is not the same as Russell Wilson. Geno Smith may have a big game here and there and DK will throw up some good numbers those games, but it won’t be consistent like it has been in the past. Russell Wilson has a career passer rating of 101.8 and is a 9x bro bowler. Geno has a career passers rating is 75.7 and isn’t it’s that simple. Pair that with the fact that head coach Pete Carroll even mentioned there could be two number one QB’s tells me he isn’t completely sold and one too many mistakes and Drew Lock could be behind center and have the team including DK Metcalf adjusting once more.
Deebo Samuel
Let me pre-empt this with the fact that I still think Deebo Samuel will do well this year. I think he will have a strong year and be a value add to any team. I just don’t feel that he will live up to those numbers again. For one he has a new QB in Trey Lance who is very mobile. This will allow the team to use Deebo less in the run game because Trey himself is very mobile. Deebo had a massive year last year in a big part to the 49ers using him in the run game. Outside of Trey Lance, they have also beefed up their backfield with Jeff Wilson Jr. and Tyrion Davis-Price behind Elijah Mitchell adding to the decrease in backfield usage for Deebo Samuel. Finally, with Brandon Aiyuk possibly taking on a bigger role after showing some versatility this means less targets for Deebo. I still think he will get plenty of balls thrown his way it just won’t be the same as last year’s numbers.
Michael Thomas
Michael Thomas has been an injury nightmare for anyone who has drafted him the last two years. His 2019 campaign where he caught 149 balls for 1725 yards had all salivating and then the injury bug derailed him the next season and kept him out completely last year. He said he’s back and feeling healthy and has even shown videos of him route running that look solid. The problem…he is nursing a hamstring injury again. That’s the issue I have here. The ankle actually doesn’t bother me. That’s fixed, he has had time to rest and rehabilitate that. Now though he hasn’t played NFL game situation football in over a year. Not like it is in season, the grind and toll it takes on the athlete’s body. At best expect fatigue to set in quicker and soreness and production to decrease and at worst expect soft tissue injuries and injuries up the kinetic chain like hamstring, groin, and others to continue to keep him on the questionable list here and there making fantasy owners wonder if you should put him in your lineup. Also the Saints have added Veteran Jarvis Landry to the mix and a young explosive rookie in Chris Olave so I expect the ball to be spread around a little more.
Darren Waller
Waller has had a lot of swirling rumors around him regarding missed practices, agent issues and what his next year will look like. When a player has all of that going on I like to stick to what we know and look at the upside vs downside and then take in the rest of the unknowns. I know that Darren Waller missed time last season due to a knee injury that was called an IT Band Strain. Usually, if someone has an IT band strain there is some other associated issues with that. I also know that he missed practice time this August and though it could have been due to contract negotiations it also could have actually been a Hamstring injury as it was originally called or both to be honest. I also know that the Raiders now have a new weapon on offense in Davante Adams who Derek Carr is going to love targeting as well as Hunter Renfrow who is a very undervalued receiver in his own right. All of this points to less production out of Waller. Waller is a great player and great athlete, the problem is that with everything else going on to me it makes more sense to grab some high-ceiling wide receivers and running backs or even one of the top tier QB’s and grab a TE with some good upside like Freiermuth or Kmet later on in the draft.
Aaron Rodgers People may not like this one. There have been whispers though throughout much of the fantasy communities that tell a different story than draft boards may. Aaron Rodgers is a HOF quarterback, and everyone knows his potential ceiling is very high no matter who is on the field with him. However, that doesn’t always transfer to fantasy first off and secondly, he is in a situation now where he just lost Davante Adams his superstar target. His veteran receiving corps is made up of guys like Randall Cobb who is 32 years old, Sammy Watkins who battled Hamstring injuries last year and injury throughout much of his career and Allen Lazard who has the potential to really show what he can do but just has question marks around him whether he can step up to the role. Outside of that he has younger guys still learning the ropes he can’t rely on. He has a great back field in Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon so the Packers could lean on that which will decrease his fantasy production. They can use those guys out of the backfield as pass catchers because both do have good hands, but I don’t see us seeing the Aaron Rodgers value we have in the past.
