Do The Dallas Cowboys Need To Replace Ezekiel Elliott In This Years Draft?
The Dallas Cowboys have to feel as if they are just a piece or two away from the Super Bowl after posting two consecutive 12-5 seasons, each with playoff appearances, including a playoff win last season, the first since 2018. The team was able to achieve this despite a wholly underwhelming season from their longtime bell cow running back, Ezekiel Elliott, where he put up a career-worsts in rushing attempts, rushing yards, pass targets, pass receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns. Yeah, I think it is fair to say, simply put, he did not have a good year. Nonetheless, as I mentioned earlier, the Cowboys still found a way to win, and win often.
Key to this performance was the true emergence of Tony Pollard, a running back that has all but absorbed any work and production that Elliott left on the table. This resulted in Dallas parting ways with the significant contract of Elliott, saving the team roughly $11 million dollars. This extra cap space means that the Cowboy may still look to pull of a decent sized trade to use up some of that extra room they have created but, due to when Elliot was cut, any such trade would not be able to be executed until roughly a month after the NFL Draft on June 1st. I mention this mainly because there may be additional planning and discussions in place, that none of us are privy to, which could impact Dallas’ selection beyond what may appear outwardly obvious to us.
ARLINGTON, TX - DECEMBER 04: Dallas Cowboys running back Tony Pollard (20) carries the ball during the game between the Dallas Cowboys and the Indianapolis Colts on December 4, 2022 at AT&T Stadium in Dallas, TX. (Photo by George Walker/Icon Sportswire)
So, with that in mind, the pick is a running, right? Not so fast.
Yes, Elliott was a first round selection in 2016 but, the Cowboys, much like the rest of the NFL has devalued the position, making another running back in the first round very unlikely. Take Pollard for instance, the production they have managed to get from him was comparable to Elliott but with a fourth-round selection instead of their first overall pick.
Who Should The Dallas Cowboys Pick In This Years Draft?
Instead, on the offensive side of the ball, Dallas did lose another significant contributor this offseason in tight end Dalton Schultz, the second-leading receiver on the team last season, as he signed with Houston. You do not simply replace a player of that caliber without putting up big money, and that is exactly what the Cowboys did, signing Brandin Cooks to a two-year contract worth just under $40 million dollars. However, Cooks is. It a tight end, and it is a position that could significantly benefit from adding a top-notch player with Dallas’ first pick.
Due to the Cowboys picking later in the draft, with pick 26, the top two tight end options, Michael Mayer – Notre Dame and Darnell Washington - Georgia, are likely to be off the board at this point. As such, the third-ranked tight end prospect on many boards, Dalton Kincaid - Utah, could be on their radar. I must point out here that Kincaid is actually not my third-ranked tight end but, I do recognize he could be ranked third on a majority of other lists. The pick would make a lot of sense for Dallas as Kincaid has one of the higher upsides, in this tight end class, from an offensive production perspective. He posted the most receiving yards of any tight end in this draft class last season, accumulating 70 receptions for 890 yards and eight receiving touchdowns. That said, he is not a particularly effective blocker but, the good news here is that the Cowboys already added a rookie tight end last season, Jake Ferguson – 4th Round Selection, who is a much better blocker than Kincaid and should be able to assume those duties as needed.
A less likely option, and actually my third-ranked tight end, is Luke Musgrave – Oregon State. Musgrave does not quite have the proven production track record that Kincaid has, nor is he all that formidable as a blocker either but, his athletic profile and potential upside is a bit higher than Kincaid in my opinion. While teams do not generally target upside over proven production in the first round, I think there is a case to be made that Dallas could see greater long-term benefits from Musgrave.
.@BuckyBrooks ranks @Utah_Football TE @_DaltonKincaid as the #1 TE in the Pac-12 👀
📺: 2023 #NFLDraft – April 27-29 on NFLN/ESPN/ABC pic.twitter.com/2JF9eiCyXb
— NFL Network (@nflnetwork) April 5, 2023
Should The Dallas Cowboys Pick A Defensive Player In This Years NFL Draft?
There is another path that the Cowboys may opt to proceed upon if they feel the value for tight ends is just not where they feel comfortable selecting one in the first round, the alternative could be they end up selecting a defensive tackle to help bolster the other side of the ball. The interior defensive line positions have not been as productive as the team may have hoped last season. The line, as a whole, was buoyed by the production of Demarcus Lawrence and Micah Parsons. Once you look at their defensive tackles, only Osa Odighizuwa is a particularly bright point among the current group as he is the only one at the position, currently on the team, that can boast more than a single quarterback hit last season, he tallied 11 total. He also accounted for more tackles for a loss, with eight total, than all other defensive tackles on the roster combined, they accumulated four.
Now, imagine for a moment if you will, if the Cowboys had to deal with Odighizuwa missing any extended amount of time. You can rest assured that Dallas has considered this possibility and it has, and should, terrify them.
The good thing about this draft class, and a reason why the Cowboys might opt to wait on a defensive tackle is, there is a glut of elite defensive tackles in this class. They might actually be better served to wait until the second round to get a player equally or just marginally less talented. However, if they have a player that they are completely sold on, it might be one of the following:
- Bryan Bresee – Clemson – A multi-faceted prospect that has been moved all over Clemson’s line and has consistently applied pressure to the backfield throughout his college career (Likelihood: 50 percent)
- Mazi Smith – Michigan – An incredibly quick defender that wins through leverage and power. His impressive size makes it very difficult for blockers to do anything but give up ground (Likelihood: 20 percent)
- Tuli Tuipuloto – USC – Another prospect that can be used up and down the defensive line. He possesses explosive quickness and speed allowing him to be a constant torn in the side of offenses (Likelihood: 20 percent)
- Calijah Kancey – Pitt – A significant riser after an insane 4.67 second 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine. He is one of the most dominant pass rushers of this defensive tackle draft class (Likelihood: 10 percent)
Ultimately, I am relatively certain that, given the two options, tight end would be, by far, the most likely of the two options that the Cowboys are poised to select with their first pick. If I were to put a percentage on each position it would break down to an 80 percent likelihood of the pick being a tight end with 15 percent going to defensive tackle, and the remaining five percent being a single player at a single position, with that being Running Back Bijan Robinson – Texas. I say that not because I think it has a high likelihood of happening, but Jerry Jones is in control and they just lost a first round running back, why not get another one, especially one that did what? Yep, played in Texas.
Tell me that would not be the most Cowboys pick ever made.
