How Does Kelce's Health Effect Chief's Week 1 Odds?

Written by: Miles Jordan

Injury Snapshots

Kelce Celebrating With His Chiefs Teammate

As the reigning Superbowl champions, the Kansas City Cheifs prepare to kickoff Thursday Night Football and the 2023 NFL season against the Detroit Lions, all eyes will be on starting tight end Travis Kelce, who hyperextended his knee in practice on Sept. 5, 2023.

Kelce hasn’t missed a game due to injury since his rookie season in 2013 when his bothersome knee caused him only to be able to play a single snap of the 2013 season. Arthroscopic surgery on his knee showed an issue with his cartilage, leading to a microfracture procedure. Since then, Kelce has been fully healthy and dominating defenses, tallying seven 1,000-yard receiving seasons since 2016. In the 2023 season, he racked up 110 catches for 1,338 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns, leading them to a Superbowl victory against his brother Jason Kelce’s Philidelphia Eagles.

With Kelce active on the Chiefs’ roster and QB Patrick Mahones at the helm, the Chiefs look pretty unstoppable. Even with the loss of Tyreek Hill in the receiving corp entering the 2022 season, with players like Juju Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who combined for a total of 120 receptions for 1620 yards and five touchdowns, Mahomes has plenty of weapons at his disposal. Although Juju Smith-Schuster now plays for the Patriots, receivers Kadarius Toney and Skyy Moore are viable options to fill the remaining holes in the receiving corp. However, with Kelce questionable to play Thursday against the Lions, how will the Chiefs’ offense respond to losing their leading receiver?

Patrick Mahomes Throwing a Pass to Chiefs Teammate Downfield

Over the past five seasons, starting tight ends with knee injuries miss two games on average and, in their first games back, lose 15 receiving yards and 6% of their average snaps. While Kelce is questionable to play, the Chiefs need to figure out how to replace his production in the aggregate. If head coach Andy Reid has to play without his seven-time All-Pro TE, he will have to rely more heavily on his run game. Second-year running back Isiah Pacheco out of Rutgers, who was a force for Kansas City in their Superbowl winning season in 2022, is recovering from a hand and shoulder injury he acquired in the off-season, which he required him to undergo surgery. However, the Chiefs expect Pacheco to start in their season opener vs. Detroit as RB1 after being removed from the injury report.

Jerick McKinnon, who was used by the Chiefs more as a receiving back in 2020, amassing 56 catches for 512 yards and nine touchdowns, is sharing the backfield with Pacheco. He also rushed for 291 yards on 72 carries and a touchdown and was a valuable RB2 behind Pacheco. With weapons in the receiving and rushing core, Mahomes has plenty of options to target to pick apart the Lion’s defense.

While the Chiefs are a solid team without Kelce, having their start TE makes them Superbowl contenders. Even though Kelce may only miss a single game, winning the season opener is essential to setting the foundation for a successful season. As the NFL season kicks off on Sept. 7, 2023, all eyes will be on Kansas City as they take on Detroit in primetime Thursday Night Football.