What was the Jacksonville Jaguars draft strategy?
While the general fan may not realize or recognize it, the NFL Draft is much less about the players that are drafted, contrary to nearly every segment, commercial, and lead-in to, as well as lead-out of, commercials, and is much more about value, and how each team generates that value. For some teams the value may come from trading up to get a player from a position that the team values higher than the rest of the players at that position, while others may trade down to gather up future trade capital or more picks in hopes of finding additional players that can contribute.
In the case of Jacksonville, the Jaguars clearly was part of the trade down camp as not a single trade that the team was involved in came as a result of Jacksonville seeking to trade up within the draft. Every single trade involved trading back in the draft or trading picks for veteran players. Of the ten trades involving 2023 picks of which the Jaguars were a party to, roughly half involved the team trading back to obtain additional picks. These include two trades back in the first round, one involving the Giants where they obtained an additional fifth and seventh round pick from New York and the other involving Buffalo where Jacksonville obtained a Bills’ fourth round pick, and an additional trade back in the second round where the Jaguars obtained a fifth-round pick from Chicago.
From outward appearances, the trades back may have been beneficial in allowing the Jaguars to obtain a player from the position they ultimately drafted without another team selecting the same position in the space between their original and new pick positions. There is one possible exception to this that I will discuss shortly.
Who was the Jacksonville Jaguars first draft pick?
After moving down from the 24th overall pick, to the 25th overall pick, and then down to the 27th overall selection, Jacksonville ultimately selected an offensive tackle. This position was a priority after it was announced on the first day of the draft that Jaguars left tackle Cam Robinson was set to be suspended for multiple games this season for violating the performance-enhancing drug (PED) policy of the NFL. This news likely caused Jacksonville to shuffle their draft board and may have also been the impetus for all the trading activity I mentioned earlier. Ultimately, with the 27th selection Jacksonville selected offensive tackle Anton Harrison – Oklahoma.
The selection of Harrison with the 27th pick roughly coincides with where many projected him to be selected, that being a late first selection, so the value is certainly there. However, Harrison is unlikely to remain as the starter at left tackle for Jacksonville following Robinson returning from his suspension. This does dent his immediate value somewhat; however, he could potentially be moved to right tackle, allowing him to develop in-game and mitigating any mistakes he could make. This move would not be all that unheard of as the team lost starting right tackle Jawaan Taylor in free agency to Kansas City. Meanwhile, Walker Little, the Jaguars’ currently projected started at right tackle, only has six starts since the 2021 season, making him possibly replaceable. In all, the selection of Harrison fills a pressing and immediate need but, could also be viewed as a long-term value as well.
Ready To Work! #DUUUVAL pic.twitter.com/0Smraz31ij
— Anton Harrison ₇₁ (@Ayee_Tonn) April 30, 2023
What Position did the Jaguars select that was an immediate need?
Once Jacksonville was on the clock again at pick 61, they opted to select a tight end in Brenton Strange – Penn State. This was also a position of need as Evan Engram has a long history of injuries dating back to college, despite playing in all 17 games last season, his first season as a Jaguar. The pick is a significant reach, in my eyes, as I projected Strange to be selected in the fifth to sixth round range, a far cry from the second round. This pick is also a bit odd in that Jacksonville might have been outplayed by Buffalo in their first round trade, something I alluded to earlier. I say this because tight end was a clear position of need for the Jaguars coming into the draft, however, when they traded down two picks with Buffalo, Dalton Kincaid was still on the board, the first tight end ultimately selected in the draft. It is my theory that Jacksonville believed that Buffalo, who already has Dawson Knox, was unlikely to select a tight end so they completed the trade with Bills, believing the one team between the two picks, Dallas, was also unlikely to select a tight end, despite it also being a need for the Cowboys. This was a gamble that the Jaguars, I believe, made and lost. My reason for this theory has to do with the aforementioned second round selection of a tight end, a pick I, again, classify as a reach. Further supporting this, an additional four tight ends were selected between the 25th overall pick in question, and the Jaguars’ 61st pick. At this point, I believe Jacksonville panicked and selected a player they felt had the greatest upside as opposed to a player with the most pro-ready skill set. I believe they did this in an effort to cover for the fact that they were outplayed by Buffalo in the trade and made this pick in an attempt to project that this was the plan they team had all along and that they have a very specific valuation on Strange, implying they see, or know, something no other team does, a classic overcompensation.
The last pick of Day Two that Jacksonville made was the 88th pick of running back Tank Bigsby – Auburn. Bigsby figures to be a back up to Travis Etienne and could be used to allow him a breather at certain points through the game. While I do not believe Bigsby will carve out any more than a third of the Jaguars’ running touches for himself, he could step into a starting role if, for some reason Etienne is injured or otherwise unable to play. The selection is certainly a value pick, as this is exactly the range I projected Bigby to be selected but, he is unlikely to be an immediate, significant contributor.
JACKSONVILLE, FL - JANUARY 14:Jacksonville Jaguars running back Travis Etienne Jr. (1) runs with the ball during the game between the Los Angeles Chargers and the Jacksonville Jaguars on January 14, 2023 at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville, Fl. (Photo by David Rosenblum/Icon Sportswire)
Who did the Jaguars select day three?
On Day Three, Jacksonville made the selections of linebacker Ventrell Miller – Florida, defensive end Tyler Lacy – Oklahoma State, linebacker Yasir Abdullah – Louisville, safety Antonio Johnson – Texas A&M, wide receiver Parker Washington – Penn State, cornerback Christian Braswell – Rutgers, safety Erick Hallett – Pitt, offensive tackle Cooper Hodges – Appalachian State, defensive tackle Raymond Vohasek – North Carolina, and fullback Derek Parish – Houston.
Yeah, you might say they selected a lot of players. Of the ten players they selected on Day Three, few figure to be much more than depth selections. The first of three exceptions to that assessment are Ventrell Miller, who could take over for Foyesade Oluokun in the event his production slips this season as his contract makes him a potential cost saving cut before the start of the 2024 season. Oluokun made $6.6 million last season, will make $8.8 million this season, and is slated to make $21.8 million next season, so there is incentive for the Jaguars to move on from him, hence providing an opportunity for Miller. The second is Antonio Johnson, who I projected to be drafted in either the first or second round and who could allow Jacksonville to move on from Rayshawn Jenkins as he is set to turn 30 years old this year and his contract is now at a point that it could make sense for the Jaguars to consider a trade or cutting him outright. Finally, the last of the three exceptions is Parker Washington who was an exceptional value in the sixth-round at pick 185. I felt Washington should have been selected in the third or fourth round so being able to get him a full two to three rounds later is nothing short of a steal. Washington provides a significant amount of flexibility for Jacksonville as Zay Jones, Christian Kirk, and Calvin Ridley are all one year removed from some significant pay spikes in their contracts or the expiration of their contracts as is the case with Ridley. Washington could step into a starting role if he is able to prove to the Jaguars that he can handle the workload and that the team will not see a decrease in production when he is on the field.
What was the Jacksonville Jaguars draft grade?
Ultimately, I was not the biggest fan of the draft that Jacksonville had. The strategy was sound, and I understand why they did what they did, however, the value simply was not there in the selections they did make. Long term, the Day Three selections could end up being bigger contributors than those players selected in the first two days of the draft. As such, in terms of immediate value, the Jaguars get a C- grade. Not one of their selections appears to be locked into a starting role from Day One, with the exception of Harrison, who is in such a position due to extenuating circumstances and who could, potentially, end up as a back up after Robinson returns from his suspension. That said, in terms of long-term value, Jacksonville gets a solid A. The team came out of this draft with multiple players who have the potential to assume a starting role at some point in the future and who could challenge high-paid veterans for a starting role, allowing the team to save money in top-heavy, under-performing contracts. To this end, the draft could, ultimately, prove to be successful, we may just need to wait a bit longer in order to see the outcome that the Jaguars are hoping for.
