Fresh off their second Super Bowl win in the past four seasons, as well as a third appearance in that span, there are few teams in the league with as few glaring holes, or needs, than the Kansas City Chiefs.
WE ARE SUPER BOWL CHAMPIONS !!!! pic.twitter.com/ws26JGa3xo
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) February 13, 2023
They say that dynasties are built and crumble in the trenches, especially on the offensive side of that divide. With the possibility of a burgeoning dynasty hanging in the balance, Kansas City will likely spend a significant amount of their available salary cap ensuring that the centerpiece of their offense, Patrick Mahomes remains protected and pressured as little as possible. To this end, their main focus in free agency should be signing both offensive tackles, Orlando Brown and Andrew Wylie. Obviously, this article is not intended to be a piece outlining free agency needs, however, unless the Chiefs are certain about their ability to sign one, or both, Brown and Wylie, the most obvious way to fill either of those potential vacancies, without breaking the bank, would be through the NFL Draft.
I am going to make the assumption that the re-signing of Brown will take precedence over retaining Wylie and that Kansas City will have a need for a new right tackle. While the possibility remains that they may simply elevate Darian Kinnard, their fifth-round selection from last season, it is just as likely they may opt to find that replacement with their first selection of the draft. Right tackle is not traditionally a position that teams tend to use a Day One pick on, but desperate times call for desperate measures. In the event that Kansas City finds themselves with one, or more, holes at offensive tackle, I believe they will take a long, hard look at Oklahoma tackle Anton Harrison.
Harrison provides some flexibility to the Chiefs no matter which of their veteran tackles they are able to sign. He has served admirably for the Sooners, allowing just four sacks throughout his three seasons in college, a sack allowed rate of under half of just one percent (0.4 percent) with only a single sack allowed last season and a sack allowed rate of just 0.22 percent. He can slot right in on either side of the line and has the potential to prevent Kansas City from even missing a beat.
An equally likely scenario involves the other side of those trenches I mentioned at the start of this piece. The Chiefs may look to move on from Frank Clark and the $20 million dollar salary he would be due this season. Clark managed to accumulate 39 total tackles, the third-highest total that he has collected since reaching the NFL, but he only notched a paltry five sacks, conversely the third-fewest total in this area over that same span of time. Clark’s drop in his ability to put pressure on opposing quarterbacks could be his undoing given the hefty payday he would be due in 2023. The added benefit of Kansas City moving on from Clark would be the cap space that such a move would free up, making it more likely that the Chiefs could retain Brown, and possibly even Wylie.
In the event of just such a move, Kansas City may look to select BJ Ojulari to fill the hole left by Clark. Ojulari is exceptionally quick off the snap of the ball and creative in the ways he creates pressure in the backfield. His speed, quickness, and ability to sniff out plays means that, despite Clark’s impressive tackle numbers last season, Ojulari could produce in a similar manner. However, he has the potential to be an upgrade in terms of the pressure he could apply to opposing quarterbacks.
Finally, a less likely, although not completely dismissible, option for the Chiefs would be the selection of the a wide receiver with their first pick. Kansas City is poised to lose both Mecole Hardman and JuJu Smith-Schuster this offseason, the later of which was their leading wide receiver en route to their hoisting of the Lombardi Trophy.
The Chiefs have seen their average depth of target (aDOT) decrease year over year over the course of the last five seasons. The drop has been precipitous and should be alarming as it fell from a high of 9.1 yards per target in 2018 down to just 7.2 yards per target last season. While it obviously has not negatively impacted their success thus far, it does make it much easier for defenses to defend a more crowded and confined field when an offense is not able to consistently stretch the field. To say that Mahomes is missing a wide receiver that can keep defenses honest downfield, as Tyreek Hill was able to do, is an understatement.
In order to open up receivers underneath, namely their primary weapon, Travis Kelce, Kansas City may look to reinvest in speed outside. Provided he drops, even a bit, the Chiefs may hop at the chance to add Tennessee’s Jalin Hyatt to their wide receiver corps.
Hyatt is undeniably one of the fastest players, on either side of the ball, in this draft class. His addition to Kansas City’s offense would give an instant jolt to their passing game and could propel Mahomes’ passing statistics to stratospheric heights. With the potential to see Hyatt on the field with Kadarius Toney and Skyy Moore, those slumping aDOT numbers would be all but certain to rebound and making it nearly impossible to contain Kelce as he roams the middle of the field with impunity.
Ultimately, if I had to place percentages to the likelihood of any one of these positions being selected by the Chiefs with their first pick, I would likely lean more towards an edge rusher being the likely pick with roughly even odds of this occurring. The next most likely scenario would be 40 percent chance of an offensive tackle being selected. Finally, the remaining ten percent likelihood would fall on the chances of a wide receiver joining Kansas City on Day One of the NFL Draft. No matter the selection, I expect the Chiefs to, once again, push deep into the playoffs as they fortify an already strong base with a solid young player they can depend upon for years to come.
