If you have been following along with the “Rough Draft” series, you have probably noticed that for each team, thus far, we have provided multiple positions that each team may target with their first selection. If you have yet to check out this series, you can check out AFC West rivals Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers pieces to see exactly what I am referring to. However, in this piece, as we examine the likely first round target of the Las Vegas Raiders, there is only one clear position that the team is all but certain to select, quarterback.
The writing has been on the wall since the Raiders cut Derek Carr on February 14th, the last day before his contract was set to be guaranteed for $32.9 million dollars this season, as well as an additional $7.5 million dollars for the 2024 season. Carr has put his stamp on the Raiders organization over the span of his nine year career, accumulating team records in pass completions (both season and career), passing yards (both season and career), and touchdown passes (career). It will be no small feat for Las Vegas to replace Carr, by most measures available.
That said, the freeing up of $29.3 million dollars ($5.6 million dollars of the aforementioned $40.4 million is unusable “dead cap” space) is not only a great motivator to attempt such a replacement, but also allows for a team-wide upgrade if they go about signing free agents to some team-friendly contracts.
The #Saints & Derek Carr agreed on a 4-yr deal for $150M with $100M in total guarantees, per me & @MikeGarafolo. He gets $70M effectively fully guaranteed ($60M at signing, another $10M in Year 3 vesting after Year 1). Carr structures his deal to accommodate Saints’ cap issues. pic.twitter.com/vs6qaBh7rg
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) March 6, 2023
Additionally, it is important to make a caveat before getting too deep into this article, that being, the Raiders may ultimately choose to address their vacancy at quarterback via free agency prior to the NFL Draft and, as such, most of what we are about to cover will immediately go out the window. Sure, they may choose to sign a mid-range, serviceable, option at the position while simultaneously opting to select a high-end prospect to eventually assume the starting role but, this will only invite controversy for all parties involved and they could have easily retained Carr for a comparable cap hit, so I do not believe this will be the path the ultimately pursue. I mention this because Las Vegas has been tied rumors suggesting they may attempt to sign Jimmy Garoppolo prior to the draft.
Furthermore, the Raiders have also been rumored to be putting out trade feelers in an effort to obtain a veteran quarterback. The top names circulating in these rumors are Aaron Rodgers and Mac Jones. Both players have connections to the Raiders, Rodgers via Wide Receiver Davante Adams, Jones via Head Coach Josh McDaniels, so like all rumors, they provide a believable angle or connection. Nonetheless, this, too, feels like a controversy just waiting to happen and a prime opportunity missed should they select anything other than a quarterback with their first overall selection.
So, as we finally arrive at the meat to this article, how do the Raiders get from their current, quarterback-less, situation and on through to a team helmed by one of the top quarterback prospects in this draft class? Well, this too presents at least a couple of options.
First, Las Vegas could recognize that their current position in the first round, the seventh pick overall, may limit their ability to get the player that they want or that, in their view, best fits their offense. Few teams that convince themselves that the quarterback that fell to them was exactly who they wanted, or needed, and that there are no real differences between the top tier prospects at the position, are ultimately successful in their relationship with the new face of their franchise. Therefore, the Raiders may, rightly so, feel they need to make a move to trade up in order to “get their guy”.
Currently, in the unlikely event of no trades occurring ahead of them, the Raiders have both Houston (Pick 1.02) and Indianapolis (Pick 1.04), both quarterback-needy teams, ahead of them. This means that at least two of six picks ahead of them are highly unlikely to be available, leaving Chicago (1.01), Arizona (1.03), Seattle (1.05), and Detroit (1.06). Of those picks, Seattle and Detroit would also be unlikely trade partners as moving up to those picks would likely mean that two quarterbacks would have already come off the board and would serve no upside beyond being purely a defensive move to ensure they get one of the quarterbacks remaining. Therefore, it would all come down to how they grade the top quarterback prospects and where their tier breaks are. Is their top option head and shoulders above the rest of the field? If so, they would need to present a significant package to the Bears to secure the pick. This is the option I would suggest as the board is fluid at all times. There are plenty of quarterback-needy teams in the NFL, any of which could make a tantalizing offer to the Bears and then the Raiders would need to make a nearly identical deal with the Cardinals just to essentially secure the same player they would have been trading up in order not to draft. Basically, when reasoned out, it comes down to: Get the 1.01 pick or bust.
The second option is, stay put and let the board play out as it will. In this scenario, Las Vegas views things differently than what was just laid out. They are content with any of the quarterbacks that fall to them, as they have the top tier graded out very closely. As mentioned earlier, this tends not to work out all that favorably in the past, but some teams such as Kansas City, Baltimore, and Buffalo have bucked that trend. Could the Raiders join them? Perhaps.
In either scenario, Las Vegas is likely considering four players at this point, Bryce Young – Alabama, C.J. Stroud – Ohio State, Will Levis – Kentucky, and Anthony Richardson – Florida. Now, the Raiders do things a little different than most teams when it comes to the draft, they tend to eschew commonly held beliefs and views on players so, call it a hunch, I think they let themselves get outbid for the first overall pick. They do this because they estimate, and probably correctly, that some order of Stroud and Young come off the board with the first two picks. Both are undoubtedly elite prospects and are likely to be great performers wherever they land but, given the Raiders past desire to attack deep downfield and the current state of much of the AFC West, I believe they are looking for elite arm strength in their next quarterback, leaving Levis and Richardson.
Both players put on an absolute show at the NFL Combine this past weekend. Levis had a top clocked velocity on his passes of 59 MPH while Richardson slightly bested him at 60 MPH. Additionally, both players made their deep throws look effortless. Where Richardson was able to differentiate himself was in the non-throwing drills where he posted the top quarterback results in the 40-Yard Dash (4.43 seconds), Vertical Jump (40.5”), and Broad Jump (10’-9”). His performance at the NFL Combine likely moved Richardson up on many boards across the league, but I think the Raiders still may have another curveball in store for us. I think they will also forego pulling the trigger on any trade prior to their pick. I believe they feel both Levis and Richardson will fit into what it is they are looking for out of a quarterback, a live arm with the ability to keep defenses spread out and honest downfield, and that one of the two could still be there for them at the seventh overall pick.
Ultimately, I would place the likelihood of Las Vegas selecting Levis at 40 percent, and Richardson at 60 percent.
LEXINGTON, KY - NOVEMBER 12: Kentucky Wildcats quarterback Will Levis (7) in a game between the Vanderbilt Commodores and the Kentucky Wildcats on November 12, 2022, at Kroger Field in Lexington, KY. (Photo by Jeff Moreland/Icon Sportswire)
Of course, just to be crystal clear, this is all built on the assumption that the Raiders do not surprise us all, as only they know how, and go out and get themselves a veteran quarterback. Either way, we should know relatively soon as free agency is set to open in less than two weeks on March 15th.
Get your popcorn ready, it is set to get wild over the next few weeks.
