Last season the Los Angeles Chargers were the proverbial Little Engine that Could, powering through a difficult season, especially on the offensive side of the ball, that was littered with significant injuries to their top performers. Unfortunately for Los Angeles, just as everything seemed to be getting back on track just in time for the postseason, they lost Mike Williams just before their Wild Card collapse to Jacksonville.
These injuries highlight, in the starkest terms, just how badly the Chargers need to seek out depth at wide receiver. While none of the players I have mentioned are immediately at risk of being cut due to the structure of each of their contracts, that will not, and should not, stop Los Angeles from lining up some potential successors for these fan favorites.
No position, more than wide receiver, stood out as such a significant pain point for the Chargers last season. Allen has now been in the league for a decade and is set to turn 31 before the start of next season. While neither of these things are an immediate sign of an imminent decline, there is little doubt that he is past the halfway point in his career, and may even be into the fourth quarter of his career. Additionally, Williams’ injury, a transverse fracture in his back, marks not only the latest, but one of the most serious, injuries to his spine throughout his college and professional career. Accounting for no less than five injuries that required him to miss time since 2015, durability concerns, especially when it comes to this part of his body, could contribute to the wide receiver position being heavily considered with Los Angeles’ first selection.
With his top two wide receivers out for multiple games last season, Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert saw his passing productivity take a noticeable hit as well. While he attempted and completed the most passes thus far in his NFL career last season (699 attempts, 477 completions), his passing yards fell roughly five percent year over year, as did his average depth of target (aDOT) (7.6 in 2021 vs. 6.4 in 2022), and his touchdown percentage (5.7% in 2021 vs. 3.6% in 2022). It is clearly evident that he needs consistent, high-level options on the field to be successful. This is not incredibly surprising as the same could be said about nearly any quarterback in the NFL, but with a fifth-year option decision looming over Herbert’s future with Los Angeles, a commitment to building around him now could make negotiations around his first non-rookie contract a little less contentious.
Since entering the league, Justin Herbert has:
⚡️ 1,316 Completions
⚡️ 14,089 Passing YDs
⚡️ 94 Passing TDsThis leads all QBs drafted in 2020. pic.twitter.com/fkNux2ZJ9E
— NFL on Prime Video (@NFLonPrime) February 28, 2023
So, the question remains, which wide receiver prospect could the Chargers select to head their 2023 draft class? Well, interestingly enough, they have a decent number of options, all of which have the potential to be very solid selections. The three most likely picks would be Jordan Addison – USC, Quentin Johnston – TCU, and Jalin Hyatt – Tennessee.
Addison, a local prospect that played just a stones throw from SoFi Stadium last season, provides positional flexibility in the event that either Allen or Williams must miss time next season. He would also make for an excellent successor to Allen beyond next season with a relatively similar skill set.
Johnston, on the other hand, would be a much closer analogue to Mike Williams. His frame is nearly identical, as is his speed and ball tracking ability. Most people would be hard pressed to see much difference in their games and Los Angeles might opt for a consistent dynamic, in terms of game play, if they decide to move on from Williams at some point.
Finally, Hyatt could be a value-added component to the Chargers passing game. Easily one of the faster options in this class, Hyatt could line up outside, opposite to Williams, allowing Allen to see his slot snap percentage continue to grow. His ability to stretch the field would make Los Angeles an exceptionally dangerous passing attack at all levels of the field. Furthermore, if the Chargers selected Hyatt, this could additionally be a defensive selection as you may remember I mentioned the possibility that Kansas City may also have him on their radar in an effort to also stretch the depth of their pass attempts a bit further downfield. What better way to stick it to your division rival than to force them to play a player twice each season that they were targeting?
While I believe wide receiver is, by far, the most likely position that Los Angeles will target with their first round pick, there is an outside chance they could lean into a stronger tight end class and select either Michael Mayer – Notre Dame or Dalton Kincaid – Utah.
The Chargers have been lacking a true and dependable option at tight end for a good many years. Sure, Gerald Everett, Jared Cook, Hunter Henry, and even Antonio Gates in the twilight of his career have all been serviceable, but none have been able to surpass 700 receiving yards since Gates did so just under a decade ago in the 2014 season. For some context, there have been 57 instances of a tight end surpassing 700 receiving yards in a season since that point, with 27 different players reaching that mark. It is high time Los Angeles rejoins that group and what better year to do so.
Of the two likely first round tight ends, Mayer is the best fit for the Chargers’ offense as he can be used in the passing game and his blocking skills are more polished than those of Kincaid. Those skills do provide some added flexibility and would allow the team to keep him on the field more consistently. He is a much bulkier and solidly-built prospect which could help mitigate future injuries while providing an increased opportunity for Los Angeles to get two tight ends on the field at once (12 Personnel), presumably Everett and Mayer. This would have the effect of stretching defenses very thin and forcing them to effectively pick their poison, get picked to death underneath or putting their defensive backs on an island and susceptible to getting burn for large gains.
Ultimately, there is no real wrong pick for the Chargers given the options I outlined. If asked to place values on the likelihood of one position being selected over another, I would lean heavily towards a wide receiver being the pick, roughly nine out of ten times. In the event that a wide receiver is their selection, I further believe that Hyatt would make the most sense for Los Angeles as he adds a further element to their offense when all their wide receivers are healthy, while also mitigating the impact to the offense in the event of an injury. Should this selection come to pass, we could see Herbert’s number reach new, and explosive, levels while presenting both an immediate and long-term, significant threat to dethrone Kansas City.
