Admittedly, this piece feels a bit like having your dessert before eating dinner to me as I am a lifelong Los Angeles Rams fan. I was born into the fandom with my father being a fan before me. I live in the greater-Los Angeles metro area. Some of the earliest photographs of me as a toddler show me sporting a Rams sweatshirt. My first NFL season after being born had the Rams making their first Super Bowl appearance. Simply put, this is my team, it always has been, even when they moved across the country and set up shop in St. Louis for two decades.
That said, like any good fan, you absolutely must see the bad years for what they are, a chance to rebuild and retool, and let me tell you, 2022 was undoubtedly one of those seasons.
The problem with that view is that it only works so long as your team has draft picks to, you know, rebuild and retool, which the Rams were noticeably lacking at prior to the start of this week. Los Angeles’ first round pick, which would have been the sixth h overall pick, belongs to the Detroit as a result of the Matthew Stafford/Jared Goff trade, now marks the seventh consecutive season that the Rams will not be selecting on Day One of the NFL Draft. While not a record just yet, Washington holds that distinction with eleven straight seasons without a first-round pick, it is the current longest streak in the league.
So, two bits of news last week effectively doubled the number of picks that Los Angeles now holds. The first increase occurred when the NFL announced the yearly distribution of supplemental selections. This season the Rams found themselves with four additional picks, three in the fifth round, picks 167, 171, and 177 overall, and one pick in the seventh round, pick 251 overall. The second addition of picks was via a high-profile trade with Miami which included a third-round pick, selection 77 overall, dealt along with tight end Hunter Long, for cornerback Jalen Ramsey.All totaled, Los Angeles went from six selections a week ago, up to 11 selections as things currently stand.
Trade is now agreed to, per sources:
🏈Dolphins get Pro Bowl CB Jalen Ramsey.
🏈Rams get 2023 third-round pick (No. 77) and TE Hunter Long.
Trade will be processed Wednesday, when league year begins. pic.twitter.com/0KJIeoS6fj
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) March 12, 2023
The first of the Rams picks is the 36th overall pick, the fourth pick of the second round. Now, as I mentioned earlier, with this following a subpar season for the team, there are no shortage of areas that need to addressed or, at the very least, shored up. The two positions, however, that float to the top of this list are offensive line and edge rusher. I believe there is a very specific scenario where one position would be prioritized over the other, if that scenario is not in play then the other position will, almost certainly be the pick. Allow me to explain.
First, each team generally has a ranked list of the players available, this is called a big board. A team’s big board ranks players based on the needs of the team, however, teams keep more than one big board. They will also keep a big board that tries to objectively ranks the available players as well. The reason for this is that if a team focused solely on their own board as the Bible of player value, they could potentially miss a change to extract additional value out of the draft via trades if a player lower on their board, but higher on the objective board, starts to fall.
I mention all of this because every team does this and that is important in this scenario because team needs and desires may trump player values in the first round and once Day One is in the books, teams will reassess and jockey to move up. In the frenzy of the first round, players ranked high on an objective board could find their way into the second round due to the moving and shaking that inevitably occurs.
Great, so now what?
Well, I believe that the Rams have a high desire to draft one specific offensive guard in the class that makes sense for them from a value standpoint, O’Cyrus Torrence – Florida. The problem is, he is generally ranked as a prospect that should come off the board in the middle to late picks of the first-round by most big boards. However, this is misleading as some quarterbacks, that are all but certain to come off the board among the top ten selections whereas several of those players fall lower on those same big boards. This is important because moving those players ahead of Torrence in the actual draft means he could be pushed towards the back end of the first round and possibly into the second round, moving him into the reach of the Rams at the top of the second round.
There are numerous reasons that Torrence makes sense for the Rams should he fall far enough. Los Angeles’ offensive line ranked among the bottom quarter of the league last season according to Pro Football Focus, enabled the fifth-fewest rushing yards per game, and was tied for the second-most sacks allowed with an average of 3.5 surrendered per game. There is no doubt that bolstering the offensive line should be a huge priority.
What if that very specific situation fails to materialize? Well, that is where Los Angeles’ contingency plan comes into play, the selection of an edge rusher. The Rams are all but devoid of edge rushers on their roster as it currently stands. Los Angeles parted ways with Leonard Floyd, their one consistent starting edge rusher in another roster move the occurred last week.
In an effort to fill this enormous hole on the defensive side of the ball, the Rams actually have a few more options available to them, hence the likely desire to obtain an elite offensive guard prior to addressing the edge rusher vacancy. In the event their hand is pushed, look for Los Angeles to target Nolan Smith – Georgia or BJ Ojulari – LSU.
Both Smith and Ojulari have a similar style of play and athletic profile, both of which fit the needs for Los Angeles to get quicker and more versatile on the defensive side of the ball. Neither are particularly large by edge rusher standards but, both can move around, dropping into coverage if needed, rushing the quarterback, and defending against the run. While neither will replace Floyd outright, they can be viewed as an option to move around as other options are obtained or developed.
Now then, what is the likelihood that the Rams select in any of the ways I outlined? Well, this piece is a bit different than the AFC West pieces I shared with you recently as it involves a scenario based prerequisite and, as such, will need to be handled a bit differently. Therefore, I would estimate the chances that O’Cyrus Torrence falls to Los Angeles at the 36th pick to be roughly 25 percent as I believe some team will see his value, should he fall, and will select him or move up to obtain his rights. In the event Torrence is selected prior to the Rams’ pick, I would estimate the likelihood of the team selecting an edge rusher at roughly 80 percent. Be sure to note that the two events are not supposed to add up to 100 percent as one is dependent on the other and it is not a decision between two choices.
No matter who they select, I have very little doubt that player will see the field early and often.
Go Rams!
