Miami has had one of the more unique paths to the NFL Draft in recent memory with that path starting all the way back in August of 2022. It was then that the NFL stripped the team of their 2023 first-round selection after it was determined that the Dolphins had violated tampering rules in their discussions with Tom Brady and Sean Payton. So, in essence, you can thank Miami for the first round being 1/32nd short this year as there are only 31 picks this season as opposed to the traditional 32 selections.
Second, the Dolphins actually had another first round selection that they obtained from San Francisco for a first-round pick last year before they traded that pick to Denver in November of 2022 as part of a package deal for Bradley Chubb.
Due to both of these actions, Miami’s first pick in the 2023 NFL Draft now is now the 51st overall pick.
Truthfully, given the moves that that the Dolphins have made this offseason, this is probably one of the easiest pick to project thus far. Two moves, in particular, appear to have tipped Miami’s hand and, if I am correct, their plan is well-executed.
The first move I am referring to was the acquisition of Jalen Ramsey from the Los Angeles Rams in return for a third-round pick (Selection 77th overall) and, the first hint of the Dolphins’ plan, back up tight end Hunter Long. To be clear, Long was not an integral piece to Miami’s current, or even long-term, plans. In his two seasons in the NFL he has only caught a single pass for eight yards. However, this move may have had more to it than meets the eye. You see, the Rams themselves appear to have also had a need at tight end that they may have sought to fill with their second round selection (36th overall). In shoring up Los Angeles’ tight end position, if even marginally, the Dolphins may have been hoping to cause the team to consider another position, or they may have even come to a tacit agreement that the Rams would fill other needs in order to offload Ramsey’s contract and to get the deal done. There is a lot to consider there as the trade does not appear to do much for the Rams, but that would seem to be the point, Miami may have been buying their compliance as part of a trade that addressed a clear need for the Dolphins, adding a dominant cornerback, while also giving the Rams options that have yet to be fully realized thus far.
Miami are you ready?!
Welcome to the 305, @jalenramsey! 🤟 pic.twitter.com/uuJwZiRbDG
— Miami Dolphins (@MiamiDolphins) March 15, 2023
The second move, failing to re-sign Mike Gesicki, only serves to reenforce what I laid out in the previous paragraph, this is, Miami is all but certain to prioritize the selection of a tight end with their first pick. The Dolphins have blatantly failed to address the position via trades or free agency, instead opting to weaken it through those very same means. As such, currently, the current starter as things sit today would be Durham Smythe, a player heading into his sixth season with career highs in a season of just 34 receptions (2021), 357 receiving yards (2021), and two touchdowns (2020). These statistics would be roughly rank him as the 26th tight end in the league using last season as a measuring stick. Yes, sure, Smythe was not given a chance to start given the presence of a, now gone, Gesicki. Nonetheless, even if they had complete confidence in Smythe, which seems unlikely, Miami only has two tight ends currently on their roster, they need depth if nothing else.
Given the likelihood of selecting a tight end, this is the perfect season to do so. This is, yet another reason, why I feel their plan was very strategic and well-planned. No less than four premium tight end options could be selected in the first two rounds of the draft, each with significant upside. So much of who the Dolphins may select will depend on the moves and selections teams make ahead of them. While we may likely see a run on quarterbacks and wide receivers, this will only push the tight ends down so far. Miami will likely monitor the board closely for needs versus value throughout the first round and a half and could, potentially, attempt to move up if the options at the position begin to dry up, such a move would likely only be within the second round and not the first, however, the Dolphins could be sitting at just the right location to find themselves their tight end of the future.
Looking over the likely option available to them, Michael Mayer – Notre Dame, the top tight end prospect in this class will likely be off the board leaving close second ranked option, Darnell Washington – Georgia, as well as Dalton Kincaid – Utah, and Luke Musgrave – Oregon State.
While Washington would and could be an amazing selection here, I feel his value may put him just slightly out of range for Miami, ultimately leaving them the realistic choice between Kincaid and Musgrave. Both players have very similar play styles, neither is particularly impressive as blockers and they both are highly involved in the passing game. Musgrave is the larger, faster, and generally more athletic of the two players while Kincaid is a bit more well-rounded in terms of being able to be used in more ways, as well as a bit better when he is asked to block.
INGLEWOOD, CA - DECEMBER 18: Oregon State Beavers tight end Luke Musgrave (88) runs with the ball during the Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl college football game between the Utah State Aggies and the Oregon State Beavers on December 18, 2021, at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, CA (Photo by Brandon Sloter)
Ultimately, I would give a slight edge to the Dolphins selecting Musgrave due to his more athletic profile and a recent emphasis on speed from Miami. Additionally, while not an exact match, Musgrave is eerily similar to Gesicki in terms of size, athleticism, and play style. The Dolphins may simply seek to get a younger and cheaper version of the elite tight end they just lost to free agency, hoping the production does not slip too significantly and any error can be kept to a minimum.
The likelihood of Miami selecting a tight end with their first selection in the draft is bordering on a near certainty. Furthermore, I would place the likelihood of the Dolphins selecting Musgrave at roughly 80 percent with Kincaid accounting for 15 percent of the remaining outcomes and the final five percent being assigned to selecting another tight end due to a fall of either Mayer or Washington, or a reach on a player I did not mention in this piece.
As I said, we may have just witnessed a true master class in maneuvering from Miami this offseason. If this selection plays out like I expect, they should be commended for their foresight, patience, and strategic planning.
