What is The New England Patriots Draft Strategy?
If there is one team in the NFL that has organized itself through the value it has found in the NFL Draft, that team, by far, would be the New England Patriots.
There is perhaps also no other team out there that has used draft picks as capital obtain productive players and to collect additional selections later in the draft to the extent that New England has, with the possible exception of the Los Angeles Rams in recent years. The skill with which the organization has maneuvered within the draft should, and has been, studied by other teams as a textbook example of what a team should do to consistently stay competitive for long stretches of time.
What do the Patriots need in the NFL Draft?
What then, can we expect from the Patriots this year? Do they have yet another surprise in store for us all this year? Maybe, just probably not in the first round is all.
This year, New England’s first round pick is a relatively wide-open option. The team has a significant number of needs on both sides of the ball as the team continues to struggle to find sustained success in the post-Tom Brady era. Yes, we are now three full seasons removed since Brady’s departure, and while the team has not crumbled into dust as some expected, or hoped in some instances, it also has not exactly flourished either, posting exactly a .500 record of 25-25 over the past three seasons.
So, what can be done to take, or retake if you will, that next step to sustained success? In my estimation, the two most likely selections the team will make are as different as two positions could possibly be from each other but are also glaring needs that could be addressed in one fell swoop, those being offensive tackle and cornerback.
Who should be the Patriots #1 draft prospect?
First, Trent Brown was not exactly doing many favors for New England last year. He was credited with allowing nine sacks over the course of the season, on top of another ten quarterback hits. While not completely his fault, Brown was also part of an offensive line that only allowed 2.2 seconds of pocket time per passing play, the second-least amount of time allowed in the league. From the rushing aspect of the game, the Patriots ran the ball between the tackle and guard just 26 percent of all running plays, the fourth-lowest rate in the NFL, and just 28 percent to the outside of the tackle, the seventh-lowest rate in the league. The intersection of these three statistics implies this could be a position that might benefit from a change. Brown is in the second year of a two-year deal and on the backside of the deal which could save New England money should they decide to part ways with him.
If the Patriots opt to go this route, the most likely options available for the team at the 14th pick are Paris Johnson Jr. – Ohio State or Broderick Jones – Georgia.
Johnson could very well be gone within the top ten picks of the draft, but his value is immense and in the outside chance that the draft plays out with enough trade ups to select skill players before New England, they would undoubtedly jump at the chance to scoop him up. Johnson is the most athletic and technically sound tackle in this class, and he looks to be a cornerstone for any line to build around for the next decade. He would represent a significant upgrade over Brown.
Jones, meanwhile, is the much more likely option that the Patriots could end up selecting due to his starting experience being less than that of Johnson, however, his upside is intriguing. Jones may need a little more work in order to fulfill the promised dominance of a player like Johnson, but he was proven to be dominant and reliable as a starter last season.
ATLANTA, GA - DECEMBER 31: Ohio State Buckeyes offensive lineman Paris Johnson Jr. (77) during the college football Playoff Semifinal game at the Chick-fil-a Peach Bowl between the Georgia Bulldogs and the Ohio State Buckeyes on December 31, 2022 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Michael Wade/Icon Sportswire)
What are the Patriots other draft options?
In the event that New England either misses both players and feels that a tackle is not as significant of an issue as I outlined, the next most likely position the Patriots may target is a cornerback. There are a few statistics that stick out as potential issues. First, Jonathan Jones allowed five receiving touchdowns last season, tying him for the third-most of all cornerbacks in the NFL. He also allowed 588 receiving yards which is the 26th-most of all cornerbacks in the NFL, initially that may not sound like much but remember there are 32 teams in the league each with two to three cornerbacks that play a significant number of snaps per game. Furthermore, he was targeted the eighth-most times of all cornerbacks in the league. This implies that teams see him as vulnerable and while both his completion allowed percentage and allowed yards after the catch numbers are quite low, the yardage and touchdowns he has surrendered does point to him being a bit reckless or error-prone in allowing big plays.
If the Patriots are looking to shore up the cornerback position, either by taking the heat off of Jones or potentially replacing him, the most likely option for them to select would be Joey Porter Jr. – Penn State.
Porter is one of the most physical cornerbacks in this draft class, jamming up wide receivers to destroy their route timing and routing them out of position in relation to where their quarterback expects them to be. He has great size which will allow him to match up with even the largest wide receivers and, coupled with that physicality, has proven him to be an effective rush defender as well. Porter would help bolster the defense in multiple ways and, down the road with a little more weight added to his frame, he could possibly transition to safety, possibly even playing in the box.
MINNEAPOLIS, MN - NOVEMBER 24: New England Patriots cornerback Jonathan Jones (31) looks on during a game between the Minnesota Vikings and New England Patriots on November 24, 2022, at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, MN.(Photo by Nick Wosika/Icon Sportswire)
The Patriot Way...
The Patriots are one of the teams with the most flexibility at the mid-point of this year’s draft. Ultimately, I think the team will lean towards strengthening their offensive line with a tackle, a likelihood I would place at roughly 75 percent, of which the most likely candidate to be drafted would be Broderick Jones at roughly the same likelihood. The likelihood of a cornerback being selected would come in at roughly 20 percent with the remaining five percent split between a wide receiver or a linebacker.
Hey, in the end, as New England is known for doing, they could surprise us all and pull a Patriot special, trading down for more picks and still finding a player that embodies “The Patriot Way”.
