How is the New York Giants offseason going?
After returning to the playoffs for the first time in six seasons, winning their first playoff game in the past eleven seasons, and executing both an impressive trade and resigning their franchise quarterback to a brand-new contract this offseason, the New York Giants have a every reason to look forward to the NFL Draft this year.
First, a rhetorical question that will make it clear which position New York is likely to select with their first pick. That question is, “What is the first thing you always do after making a large purchase?“ the answer, of course, is that you buy insurance on that item. In this case, the Giants will likely be of the same mindset. After agreeing to terms with Daniel Jones on a four-year, $160 million dollar contract, look for New York to get insurance on that investment by improving the offensive line tasked with protecting him.
What position should the New York Giants draft?
Last season, the Giants allowed the fifth-most sacks in the NFL, a number that can not be replicated or allowed to increase if they hope to keep Jones upright, playing, and effective. New York’s offensive line is returning all but one starter, that being Center Jon Feliciano who signed with San Francisco in the offseason. The two most likely positions along the offensive line that may be selected with their first-round pick are likely to be either the guard position, with Mark Glowinski being the most likely of the two that could be replaced, or the center position currently slated to be journeyman Ben Bredeson.
Glowinski allowed 4.5 sacks last season, the second-most of any of the offensive line starters, including the departed Feliciano. He also collected four penalties last season as well. Only the Giants’ first-round draft pick last season, Offensive Tackle Evan Neal allowed more sacks and more penalties, however, given that last season was his rookie season and the draft capital expended upon him, he seems relatively safe, for now.
Starting with the guard position, Glowinski is likely the most expendable piece of an offensive line in clear need of an upgrade. To this end, New York could be one of the first teams to select a guard in this draft class. Only one team has the potential to stand in the way of the Giants getting their pick of the litter, the other “other” New York team, the Buffalo Bills.
MINNEAPOLIS, MN - JANUARY 15: New York Giants offensive tackle Evan Neal (73) looks on during the NFL game between the New York Giants and Minnesota Vikings on January 15th, 2023, at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, MN. (Photo by Bailey Hillesheim/Icon Sportswire)
Why the Buffalo Bills could stand in their way
You may remember from my Rough Draft piece focusing on Buffalo, that I mentioned the possibility that the Bills could opt for a guard themselves to replace Roger Saffold. This, of course, would depend on a few other options that could be a bit more pressing being taken before their pick but the possibility does exist. Furthermore, the Bills do select just two picks after the Giants. In the event that the draft does not play out the way Buffalo hopes, they could look to trade just ahead of the Giants to get that guard.
If Buffalo trades up or stays put, New York is likely faced with one of two options at the position, O'Cyrus Torrence – Florida as I spoke about in the aforementioned Bills piece, and John Michael Schmitz – Minnesota. Now, to be clear, Schmitz played center throughout his college career, just to be upfront here. If the pick is purely a guard, as I have been outlining thus far, Torrence is the pick all day but, if the Giants are looking for a player who could fill in as a guard or, who could play his natural position, kicking Bredeson, either to guard or back to the sidelines, that player could be Schmitz.
Given that choice, the selection of Torrence would ensure that Bredeson finally gets his shot at a starting role after New York obtained him from the Ravens in 2021. While not an elite talent, Bredeson would, at least, be a change and would allow the Giants to move on from the error-plagued Glowinski.
However, a selection of Schmitz would likely lock Glowinski into a starting role for as long as at least another season but, possibly, as short as another day or two if New York looks to circle back and double down on offensive linemen. Ultimately, this is likely to be the more likely option of the two scenarios given the flexibility it provides.
In the less likely event that both Torrence and Schmitz are off the board by the time the Giants get on the clock, I think that while they may consider another position such as cornerback or wide receiver, ultimately they will stick with their plan and either trade down, buying themselves more time to evaluate the new, unfortunate, reality they would find themselves in or, they could reach a bit further in hopes of addressing their needs no matter what.
FORT WORTH, TX - OCTOBER 01: TCU Horned Frogs offensive lineman Steve Avila (#79) blocks during the Big 12 college football game between the Oklahoma Sooners and TCU Horned Frogs on October 01, 2022 at Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, TX. (Photo by Matthew Visinsky/Icon Sportswire)
What other options could the New York Giants focus on in the draft?
In this scenario, New York’s next tier of choices would come down to Steve Avila – TCU or Cody Mauch – North Dakota State. In this decision, Avila is the much more known and polished prospect, performing exceptionally well as the Horned Frogs leaned on his blocking aptitude all the way to the National Championship Game. However, Mauch is the prospect with the higher upside. An FCS standout at offensive tackle for the Bisons, Mauch’s game projects much better at guard where he can focus exclusively on what is in front of him.
Should this be the decision New York ends up facing, the known commodity and security that Avila would provide makes him both the likely and ultimately, better decision.
So now comes the real question, how likely are the Giants to select any of the options I outlined? Well, I think New York would absolutely jump at the chance to draft Schmitz. He provides them both flexibility and cornerstone around which to build their offensive line. As such, I would place the likelihood that they draft him with their first pick at 66 percent with one of the guards making up the remaining 34 percent. Within that 34 percent, Torrence makes up 80 percent of that portion (roughly a 27 percent likelihood overall) with Avila making up 15 percent (roughly five percent overall) and Mauch closing out the remaining five percent (roughly two percent overall).
