Like both Miami and Buffalo, the New York Jets have long been dominated by New England in the AFC East. It has been especially tough on the Jets though as their last playoff appearance was over 12 seasons ago in 2010. This off-season, in an attempt to turn this around, New York has been very busy on the free agent front.
Will Aaron Rodgers go to the Jets?
The biggest name they have been attached to in recent months is, of course, Aaron Rodgers. As has been reported, Rodgers has provided a list of players he wants the Jets to acquire before he will approve a trade to the team. That list reportedly is comprised of Allen Lazard, which New York signed early in March, Randall Cobb, Mercedes Lewis, and Odell Beckham Jr. While several of the players on his list are still not signed, it does appear to be one of those chicken and the egg scenarios where the players will not sign until Rodgers is traded but, he might not approve a deal until the free agents are signed. The problem is, such a deal could impact how both teams approach the draft, so there will likely be a push to get something done sooner rather than later. As such, I will try to project both what position they will target with their first selection as well as who they may select.
MINNEAPOLIS, MN - SEPTEMBER 11: Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) looks to pass during an NFL game between the Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers on September 11, 2022 at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, MN.(Photo by Nick Wosika/Icon Sportswire)
What picks do the New York Jets have in the 2023 NFL Draft?
First, let’s take a look at what would happen if a deal does not get done before the NFL Draft. In such a scenario, negotiations drag on longer than expected and Green Bay comes to the conclusion that any picks they may obtain for trading Rodgers will be for the 2024 season and beyond. As such, they press pause on negotiations until after the draft is complete. As such, New York retains the 13th overall pick in the draft, as well as two second round selections, picks 42 and 43. The Jets have to be seen as working to build around and support Rodgers so, despite several holes on both sides of the field, they likely will use their first selection on the offensive side of the ball. Since Rodgers has specified several wide receivers and even a tight end he wants to be surrounded with, to say nothing of the weapons they already have, this pick would make a whole lot of sense if it was an offensive lineman.
What positions do the New York Jets need?
With this assumption, an assumption rooted in relatively sound logic I might add, the two most likely positions that New York might target are the ever-popular left tackle and the anchor of the offensive line, a center.
For left tackle, so many teams in this draft, and any draft honestly, have their eye on a player that can protect the blind side of their franchise quarterback. The Jets thought they had this covered with their drafting of Mekhi Becton in the first round of the 2020 draft. Unfortunately, the majority of his career in the NFL, thus far, has been spent on injured reserve. He has only managed to play in 15 out of the 50 games he has been part of the Jets organization, a 30 percent play rate. While New York is unlikely just to part ways with Becton, they may view him as an option to fill in on the right tackle position when he is able to play and, if he is unfortunately injured in the future, he can be backed up by another player without impacting the play of the quarterback nearly as much.
The likely options available to the Jets at selection number 13 are the oft-mentioned Paris Johnson Jr. – Ohio State, he is as dominant of a tackle you will find out there but, he is all but certain to be gone by the time New York is on the clock, Peter Skoronski – Northwestern, another dominant option but one that might not fit what the Jets are looking to do offensively and who is also likely to be gone by the time New York can make a pick, and Broderick Jones – Georgia, another player I have mentioned in previous articles that has unmatched upside but limited starting experience. In the end, due to how the draft is likely to fall, I expect the Jets to select Jones in the event they opt to draft an offensive tackle.
However, if New York ends up selecting a center with their first pick, a path few teams have dared to tread, John Michael Schmitz would almost certainly be the pick. There are few centers worthy of a first-round selection but, Schmitz is one of those few. Possessing a very well-rounded game both as a pass and rush blocker, he can anchor a line for many years to come. He would also be in a great position to be snapping the ball to one of the best quarterbacks ever to play the game so he would be able to learn a lot in short order as well. That said, this could be a bit of a reach as Schmitz is just borderline a first-round talent, much less a player expected to be taken in the first half of the first round.
What if the New York Jets don't get Aaron Rodgers?
Now then, what if Rodgers does get traded before the draft and the Jets’ first-round pick is part of the deal? To be clear, this is unlikely as New York has stated that pick is off-limits, but it does give us a nice “what-if” to consider?
In this case, we will assume that at least one of the Jets’ second-round picks remains. In this scenario, the likelihood of a center being selected skyrockets. This is the case because all of the elite left tackles will be long gone at this point. Yes, New York may still be able to get a talented left tackle, but it would be a case of diminishing returns at this point. Schmitz could still be there but he, too, could be off the board at this point. Another option, however, could be Steve Avila – TCU. Avila is a bit larger than Schmitz, but he is also a bit more vulnerable to creative defensive linemen that do not attack him head on.
In either case, New York, in my opinion, is all but certain to go all in on protecting, what is likely to be their franchise quarterback, Aaron Rodgers. Now, what will determine how they go about getting him, that protection will depend on if he is acquired before or after this draft. In the event he is acquired after the draft or if the team holds onto their first-round selection, as promised, after he is traded to them, the first pick will be an offensive tackle, a likelihood I put at roughly 85 percent, with the player being Broderick Jones with roughly 90 percent certainty. The remaining 15 percent likelihood would be on the Jets reaching to select a center, with that player being Schmitz 95 percent of the time. In the event that Rodgers is acquired before the draft and, in the unlikely event they trade away their first-round selection as part of that deal, look for New York to target a center with their first pick in the draft, what would be a second-round selection. In that case a center has a likelihood of being selected roughly 90 percent of the time and Schmitz, who would likely be gone by then would be the selection 20 percent of the time with Avila accounting for the other 80 percent. The remaining ten percent of the positional outcome would another offensive lineman position. In any case, look for the Jets to have a new lineman, basically no matter what transpires in the Aaron Rodgers saga.
