Houston Texans vs. New England Patriots 7 PM ET
Moneyline: Texans -180 / Patriots +155
Spread: Texans -3.5 (-110) / Patriots +3.5 (-110)
Total: 36.5 (-110)
Houston Texans
Overview:
With the second pick in the 2023 NFL Draft the Houston Texans selected Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud. After dealing Deshaun Watson in 2022 to the Cleveland Browns the Texans have been waiting for a player like C.J. Stroud. Stroud has a heck of an arm and can extend plays with great success which resulted in the Texans drafting him in hopes of finally having a franchise quarterback. The Texans also traded the 12th and 33rd picks to move up to take edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. at number 3. By landing these two players in the first three picks of the draft, the Texans are moving in the right direction but still have a long way to go before they are making the playoffs and winning Super Bowls. That being said Houston does have a lot of raw talent, like running back Dameon Pierce, which will only continue to flourish with talented players on both sides of the ball to compliment Pierce’s strong running game.
New England Patriots
Overview:
Patriots owner Robert Kraft has made it clear that he wants to win now after not making the playoffs for the fifth time in Bill Belichick’s 23 seasons as Patriots’ head coach in 2022. The Patriots’ struggles in the ‘22 season stemmed from lack of offensive production from the 2021 15th overall pick Mac Jones. This poor production was in part from poor Offensive Coordinator duties from longtime Patriots’ Defensive Coordinator Matt Patricia. With the hiring of Bill O’Brien in the offseason, the Patriots’ are displaying that they still believe they can develop Mac Jones into a franchise quarterback. In the 2023 NFL Draft the Patriots’ went defense heavy with their first three picks expressing that the Patriots’ are trying to take some pressure off of Jones by rebuilding a defense that ranked near the bottom half of the league in every category last season. The Patriots’ also signed veteran wideout JuJu Smith-Schuster in free agency, reflecting that the Pats’ front office is trying to surround Jones with more weapons to hopefully unlock the skill set he displayed at Alabama.
Pick
I like the Patriots’ +3.5 here because of the quarterback matchups this game will have. Mac Jones will most likely not get too many snaps to limit injury but with Bailey Zappe as backup I think he will play with a veteran presence amongst all the young rookies and players trying to keep a job. The Texans are also starting 2023 second overall pick C.J. Stroud at QB. I would be surprised to see Stroud play significant minutes in this first preseason game and do not have much confidence in Davis Mills to put my money on the Texans. Stroud has a strong arm but given this will be his first ever action in the NFL, I like experience over youth in this matchup as well as the coaching experience matchup between the Texans and Patriots staffs.
Pick: Patriots +3.5 (-110)
Minnesota Vikings vs. Seattle Seahawks 10 PM ET
Moneyline: Vikings +160 / Seahawks -190
Spread: Vikings +4.5 (-110) / Seahawks -4.5 (-110)
Total: 35.5 (-105)
Minnesota Vikings
Overview:
The Minnesota Vikings come into the 2023 season following another electric year from WR1 Justin Jefferson. Jefferson produced 1,809 receiving yards, 8 touchdowns, while averaging 14.1 yards per reception. Justin Jefferson led the league in receiving yards in 2022 which helped the Vikings to a 13-4 record. Even after a solid regular season behind Jefferson and QB1 Kirk Cousins, Minnesota was knocked out in the wild card round to the New York Giants. This season will be big for the Vikings and Kirk Cousins especially due to Cousins being in the final year of his contract and the release of star running back Dalvin Cook. If the Vikings do not build upon their success from last season, I believe the Vikings will move on from Cousins and potentially begin to develop Jaren Hall or explore other options in the 2024 NFL Draft.
Seattle Seahawks
Overview:
The Seattle Seahawks had a very surprising 2022 NFL season after trading away franchise quarterback Russell Wilson to the Denver Broncos for players and an absorbent amount of draft picks. Longtime NFL veteran Geno Smith manned the helm for the Seahawks and put up a career year resulting in winning Comeback Player of the Year. Seattle also had a breakout rookie season from Kenneth Walker III bringing back a ground game similar to Marshawn Lynch. Seattle will continue their 2022 success as long as Geno Smith does not drastically regress.
Pick
After looking at the lines for the Vikings and Seahawks preseason opener, the only pick I really felt good about was taking the over for total points. Over 35.5 total points in this game seems doable to me because of the fact of how both of these offenses operate. I’m sure the key starters for both teams: star wideouts D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and running back Kenneth Walker III of the Seahawks; Vikings star wideout Justin Jefferson and new RB1 Alexander Mattison; will not make much of an appearance on Thursday. Even though these players will not get many snaps in preseason week 1, backup QB Drew Lock has played in enough preseason games to feel confident in his play as a backup. Lock resigned with the Seahawks this offseason but is still looking to put up a solid preseason to prove to the Seattle front office that he was worth the new contract. The Vikings will most likely give the majority of snaps to Nick Mullens and mix in fifth round pick Jaren Hall from BYU. Both of these QBs are going to need some fireworks to win this preseason game. Fireworks produce points and that is why I am taking the over 35.5 at -110 odds.
Pick: Over 35.5 total points (-110)
