Who do the Philadelphia Eagles need to replace?
Coming close to winning a Super Bowl and losing by the closest of margins will have a way of really focusing a franchise on what they need to do in order to get over that speedbump. The Philadelphia Eagles are one of those teams that could see the win within reach, only to have slip through their fingers. Fortunately, for the Eagles, they have two first round picks, the tenth overall pick, obtained from New Orleans, and the 30th overall pick. However, unfortunately for the team, they lost a significant number of key players to free agency, something that undeniably hampers those chances.
Key among those losses was running back Miles Sanders who signed with Carolina. However, Philadelphia then turned around and Rashaad Penny to likely fill that vacancy.
Aside from Sanders, the Eagles basically dodged a bullet on the offensive side of the ball. However, the defense, that I have to say, that is a totally different story.
Along the Philadelphia defensive line, the losses have been uncertain at best, and significant at worst. Javon Hargrave signed with San Francisco, while Ndamukong Suh and Linval Joseph have yet to be re-signed by the team and are thus far still free agents. These three account for 43 percent of the tackles made for the defensive line last season, 36 percent of the tackles for a loss, 46 percent of the tackles for a loss, and 51 percent of the sacks. We are not talking about inconsequential losses here.
With that much production to replace, the Eagles will think very seriously about addressing the position in the first round, potentially with either one of their picks.
Who should the Philadelphia Eagles draft?
The pick is a near perfect place to take the top defensive tackle off the board, that player is none other than Jalen Carter – Georgia.
Carter’s draft value has taken a significant hit in recent months after he pled no contest to reckless driving and racing. These charged stems from an incident, that Carter was a part of, where teammate Devin Willock and Georgia football staff member Chandler LeCroy were killed in an automobile crash. With the no contest plea, Carter’s value has stabilized such that he is now a borderline Top 10 selection, after initially being considered the top overall selection by many. For the Eagles this is serendipitous news given their first pick, their great need, and the best player to fill that need are all converging like a proverbial aligning of the stars. If Philadelphia if faced with this option as their first pick, this is absolutely the pick, hands down, no doubt in my mind.
"Strictly speaking about Jalen Carter the football player, I think you can make a case that he's the most talented player in this draft."
—@minakimes on the Georgia DL pic.twitter.com/czvymZcd80
— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) April 10, 2023
What if Jalen Carter is drafted earlier?
However, should another team leapfrog the Eagles to take Carter, or if a team before them pivots or have their own plans ruined by other selection, what would their fallback plan be? Well, suddenly another option creeps into the picture.
Last season the depth for the defensive end position was razor thin. First, Derek Barnett tore his ACL in the opening game of the season and did not produce all year. After that Philadelphia relied heavily on two players undeniably on the downside of their careers in Brandon Graham and Robert Quinn. Quinn is a free agent and is unlikely to be re-signed by the team. Meanwhile, Graham is currently 35 years old and on a one-year contract. Taken together, this is an incredibly volatile situation. Luckily, they do have the rapidly developing Josh Sweat for the foreseeable future, and they do rotate in situational pass rushers but, this position obviously becomes a viable option at the tenth selection if the Carter option is off the table.
In this situation, the Eagles would be immediately intrigued by Carter’s teammate, Edge Rusher Nolan Smith – Georgia.
Smith was integral to the success of Georgia’s defense during his time in college. He is a little smaller than the edge rushers they have relied upon in the past but, their defense has made moves to feature players that have more quickness and speed as well, a model that Smith fits very well. He flies all over the field and posted a 4.44 second 40-yard dash time at the NFL Combine, the fastest of any edge rusher at the event. This selection would be a somewhat newer wrinkle to their defense but, he would also be very tough to pass up this early if he fell to this pick.
Multiple NFL scouts reportedly believe the “possibilities are rising” that Nolan Smith comes off the board within the first ten picks.
Smith has met with or plans to meet with the Eagles, Patriots, Buccaneers, Jaguars, Bengals, Ravens on Top-30 visits.
Smith led all edge… pic.twitter.com/9CskalsADv
— NFL Rookie Watch (@NFLRookieWatxh) April 7, 2023
What if neither player is here? What if, in addition to their being the expected run on quarterbacks in the first 10 selections, these two also come off the board? Well, in that instance all bets are likely off. The Eagles could take offers that are sure to pour in and trade down a bit for some extra capital or, they could also consider a cornerback as some quality options would have fallen if such a scenario, as I described above, unfolded. In such a scenario, you could start to see the floodgates open, and a ton of movement occurs throughout the first round. If this happens, it is anyone’s guess what happens at that point.
So, by the time the 30th pick rolls around, we should all have a much better understanding of where this draft not only has been but where it is heading as well. In the case of the Eagles, if they got their defensive tackle with the tenth overall pick, they would then shift to an edge rusher here. Somewhat ironically, they could have more options, specific to an edge rusher, at the bottom of the round than would make sense at the top of it, a big reason I think they save this second pick for exactly this purpose.
The first outside option they may have before them is Myles Murphy – Clemson. Now, understand, this is not a likely option at the 30th pick, just a possible one. I imagine Murphy will come off the board at the late teens to early 20s but, as I said earlier, this draft could get weird and some people may fall that would not be widely expected to do so. Murphy is a massive edge rusher with impressive strength and a good motor. He is much more in line with the type of edge rusher that Philadelphia tends to prefer but, he also has the potential to play inside on plays that call for speedier personnel at all defensive positions, a level of positional flexibility that many other edge rushers do not possess.
Beyond Murphy, the Eagles could opt for Will McDonald IV – Iowa State, an edge rusher that is quick, flexible, and flashes impressive pass rushing moves, a really interesting fit if I am being completely honest. They could also consider Keion White – Georgia Tech, another large edge rusher that has significant strength to hold up against larger offensive tackles and some solid speed for his size.
While it is unlikely that all of these players will be available, one or two might or, they could opt to target one of the edge rushers that is just outside a first round value, possibly a B.J. Ojulari – LSU or Felix Anudike-Uzomah – Kansas State, in the smallest of reaches, hoping they could quickly take the next step in their development.
If, however, Philadelphia went with an edge rusher with their first pick, the need for an interior defensive lineman would still exist. In the event of this scenario, they could opt to target Calijah Kancey – Pitt, the undersized but, highly-skilled defensive tackle drawing a lot of favorable comparisons to fellow Pitt alumni, Aaron Donald. If the Eagles could pull of this pick, it would be an absolutely masterful stroke of how to play the draft. Kancey has the potential to do so much in the NFL and was, arguably, one of the biggest surprises both of last season and the offseason draft process as his ceiling keeps rising and rising.
However, if Kancey is off the board by the 30th pick, another option could Mazi Smith – Michigan. Smith is exceptionally talented with great size, power, and a nice collection of pass rush moves and countermeasures that allows him to work with virtual impunity on most plays. There was a weapons charge in recent months, that he has worked hard to explain as an oversight when filing paperwork but, this could impact his draft stock enough to be an option here for Philadelphia as well.
Given the variety of options available to the Eagles with the tenth and 30th overall picks I would place the likelihood of Philadelphia selecting a defensive tackle with the tenth pick at roughly 65 percent and an edge rusher claiming a 30 percent likelihood after that. The remaining five percent would be reserved for a cornerback if the draft completely disintegrates into chaos.
As for the 30th pick, it would be the exact opposite with a 65 percent likelihood of the pick being an edge rusher, a 30 percent chance that the pick is a defensive tackle, and the remaining five percent accounting for the likelihood of a cornerback being selected.
