Coming into the 2022-23 NFL season the Denver Broncos believed that with the roster addition of veteran quarterback Russell Wilson the organization would rapidly make their way back to the team's usual winning standard. This standard is consistently curating winning seasons as well as deep playoff runs, ultimately leading to super bowl berths. Along with the addition of Russell Wilson the Denver Broncos looked to finally end their vicious quarterback carousel cycle by signing former Green Bay Packers offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett. With the signing of Hackett the Broncos finally had the belief that the organization had found the captain of their vessel. Hackett had been a pivotal piece to four time NFL MVP Aaron Rogers’s success during his 18 year tenure as the Packers starting quarterback. With these two major off-season signings, the Denver Broncos were fully expecting to be in the thick of the AFC West division and ultimately having the goal of possibly winning the AFC West and making their first playoff berth since their Super Bowl 50 win in the 2015-16 season.
Comparing Contracts
Expectations can be the quickest and most painful death for NFL front offices especially when you sign an eleven year veteran to the second largest NFL contract at the time, five years at $242 million with $161 million in guaranteed money and a $50 million signing bonus attached. Since the end of the 2022-23 season other notable star quarterbacks like Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson have signed monumental long term deals in the wake of the Broncos blockbuster contract deal with Wilson. These deals have come with more justification given that Lamar Jackson has won an MVP in the last five seasons with the Baltimore Ravens and Jalen Hurts is fresh off a Super Bowl appearance with the Philadelphia Eagles. Jalen Hurts signed a five-year contract extension worth a total of $255 million, $110 million in fully guaranteed money. After continuing to play hard ball all season with Baltimore’s front office, Lamar Jackson on the day of the NFL Draft secured the now largest contract in NFL history, five years at $260 million with $185 million guaranteed. The justification behind these two massive contract extensions are more evident in these two quarterback’s play leading into their contract negotiations. Jalen Hurts has only improved from his first season as the Eagle’s starter going from a 52 completion percentage and passer rating of 77.6 in his first season to a 66.5 completion percentage and passer rating of 101.5 in the Eagle’s dominant Super Bowl bound season in 2022-23. In Lamar Jackson’s first two seasons as Baltimore’s starter he made a dramatic improvement in his completion percentage from 58.2 and total passer rating of 84.5 in his first season to 66.1 completion percentage and total passer rating of 113.3 in his second and MVP winning season in 2019.
Compensation update: Lamar Jackson’s five-year deal is worth $260 million, including $185 million guaranteed, per sources. On an average per year basis, it makes Jackson the NFL’s new highest-paid player.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) April 27, 2023
The relevance of comparing Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson’s contract extensions to the Broncos long term deal with Russell Wilson is evident when looking at Wilson’s career stats with his former team, the Seattle Seahawks, compared to his first season with the Broncos in the 2022-23 season. In Wilson’s ten year career with the Seahawks, he averaged a 64.78 completion percentage and passer rating of 91.33. During the prime of Wilson’s career in Seattle he managed to take the Seahawks to back to back Super Bowl berths in 2013 and 14, ultimately ravenging the Denver Broncos in 2013 by a score of 43-8. Following his success in Seattle Russell Wilson looked to move on from the Seahawks following a looming rebuild from the Seahawks front office. As we know this then led Wilson to waive his no trade clause and ultimately being traded to the Denver Broncos in the 2021 off season for three players and a total of five draft picks, a first, second, and fifth round pick in the 2022 draft along with multiple first and second round picks in the 2023 draft. Return on investment is a major priority when it comes to NFL front offices and after witnessing Wilson’s debut as Denver’s starting quarterback in the 2022 season one could argue that the Broncos are not getting a solid return on their five year $225 million investment. In Wilson’s first season at the helm of Denver’s offense he averaged a 60.5 completion percentage to accompany a total passer rating of 84.4 with 13 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. This was obviously not the start that the Denver Broncos were envisioning when they signed Wilson to this massive long term deal but all of the blame cannot be laid on Wilson’s shoulders. The Denver Broncos opened up the 2022 season with a BUS (Banged Up Score) of 82.1 in the first week of the season with it dramatically dropping to a BUS score of 61.1 coming into their bye week. By the end of the season the Broncos were one of the most unhealthy teams in the league which contributed greatly to the success, or lack thereof, of their newly signed veteran quarterback.
In order to try to improve the overall success of the franchise in the upcoming season, the Denver Broncos made some significant free agent acquisitions this off-season to try to protect their 225 million dollar man. The main free agent signings to focus on from Denver’s off-season is that of offensive lineman Ben Powers and offensive tackle Mike McGlinchey. The Broncos signed Ben Powers from the Baltimore Ravens in the off-season and Mike McGlinchey from the San Francisco 49ers in hopes of bolstering Wilson’s protection in the pocket. Wilson has always been a mobile quarterback but as he has entered the back end of his career, the shift from mobile to pocket passer is becoming more apparent in the Broncos offensive scheme. In order to have success with this desired offensive system the Broncos need to create a conducive environment for Wilson to be able to dissect defenses and make accurate reads without worrying about being sacked everytime he drops back to make a pass. Adversity is also a major contributing factor to a team's success throughout the season and the Broncos were on the wrong end of this factor throughout the 2022 season. With the acquisition of these two offensive line pieces, as well as the hope that star players like Jerry Jeudy and Javontae Williams will be healthy enough to play the entire season, the Broncos also might actually have stability when it comes to their head coach. The hiring of Super Bowl winning coach Sean Payton will definitely ease some anxiety in the Broncos front office and locker room due to Payton’s extensive NFL head coaching resumé with his former team the New Orleans Saints.
Overall, if the Denver Broncos can continue to establish a scheme that utilizes all of their offensive weapons and keep their veteran quarterback out of the medical tent and in the pocket completing passes, the Broncos should have a much better season than the previous. If Sean Payton and the Broncos cannot find a way to utilize their aging veteran quarterback in a quick and efficient fashion the Broncos will eventually have to eat Wilson’s long term salary and set them back even more for the near future. Hopefully adversity will be on the Broncos side this upcoming season otherwise their return on investment in Russell Wilson will be viewed as a major loss and possibly one of the top three worst trades in NFL history.
