Almost a year ago to the day, Seattle made what, many felt, could have been a disastrous trade that would set the franchise back almost a decade when they sent their starting quarterback, at the time, Russell Wilson to Denver, along with a fourth-round pick, for Drew Lock, Noah Fant, Shelby Harris, and 2022 first, second, and fifth round picks, and 2023 first and second round picks. While quite a haul, there were many, at the time, who felt the Seahawks were fleeced in the deal.
Time does have a funny way of making fools or believers out people and, in this case, there are likely a significant number of people who now have a different view of what transpired. Unless you have been living under a rock for the past year, you likely are aware that Wilson did not quite live up to the expectations that the Broncos had in their new signal caller. Wilson posted career worsts in completion percentage, sacks allowed, and quarterback rating. He often looked out of place in the Denver offense and appeared to lose leadership of the team at times. The view of the trade now looks significantly different heading into the 2023 NFL Draft as Seattle has a top five selection as well as another three picks through the first two rounds.
In most situations and, in most years, a top five selection would have a better than 50-50 shot at being one of the top quarterbacks in the class and, in a class filled with four possible first-round picks, one may assume that a season after trading away their franchise quarterback for a decade prior to last season, that the Seahawks may be in the market for just such a player. However, that would not be an accurate assessment.
The reason for that being incorrect involves the player who stepped into the starting role after Wilson, one Geno Smith. Smith not only ended up leading the team to the playoffs but also posted career-highs with 399 completions, 4282 passing yards, and 30 passing touchdowns. This was quite impressive as both his completions and passing yards were greater than any mark Wilson achieved in Seattle. The Seahawks rewarded Smith’s accomplishments with a new contract worth a possible $105 million dollars over the next three season, provided all incentives are achieved. Additionally, all things considered, this does raise the uncomfortable question, “Was Wilson actually the issue and not the solution?”
Details of Geno Smith's new contract have only reiterated what a good deal this appears to be for the Seahawks, while still rewarding Smith with the kind of payday he’d never had previously in his 10 NFL seasons. (from @bcondotta) https://t.co/X58cwRMdpO
— Seattle Times Sports (@SeaTimesSports) March 11, 2023
Ultimately, no one will ever be able to answer with any degree of certainty but, it does make for an interesting debate at a later time.
With two first-round selections, Seattle does have a degree of flexibility that not many other teams have, or have had, in prior years. However, like all teams, there are areas they could improve, if even marginally. Overall, both sides of the ball remarkably stable and generally consistent, if not relatively strong. Any positions they target in the first-round could, in all reality, be depth or future contributors as the team does not have a need to knock these picks out of the park.
That said, if one side of the ball was just a bit weaker than the other, I would say the defense could be the first unit to get some attention. The two most likely positions that the Seahawks may target with the fifth overall pick could be an edge rusher or an interior defensive lineman as these are the two positions that have not had significant upgrades in recent seasons.
Seattle’s edge rushers were very effective last season with both Uchenna Nwosu and Darrell Taylor notching 9.5 sacks each. These are not any kind of numbers to sneeze at by any means, however, Nwosu has one year left on his contract and the Seahawks may view this as an opportunity to not just bolster the position but to also transition away from Nwosu if the player they draft proves to be comparable or an upgrade. The player that I feel they might have their eye on could be Will Anderson Jr. – Alabama.
INDIANAPOLIS, IN - JANUARY 10: Alabama Crimson Tide LB Will Anderson Jr. (31) lines up for a play during the Alabama Crimson Tide versus the Georgia Bulldogs in the College Football Playoff National Championship, on January 10, 2022, at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, IN. (Photo by Michael Allio)
Now, Seattle is far from the only team with their eyes on Anderson. I mentioned in the Seahawks’ divisional rival, the Arizona Cardinals, piece that they, too, may be considering him and, as luck would have it, the Cardinals pick two selections before Seattle, meaning Anderson may be gone they the time the fifth pick rolls around. Nonetheless, if Anderson is still on the board, look for Seattle to jump at the chance to pick up arguable the top defensive player in this class.
On the other hand, if Anderson is off the board once the Seahawks get on the clock, look for them to pivot away from an edge rusher and, instead, target an interior defensive lineman. The player the could select is, well, a doozy, the controversial Jalen Carter – Georgia. Carter was projected to be the top overall pick several months ago by many draft experts. The incredibly disruptive defender collected 15.5 sacks over the last two season, helping to elevate the Bulldogs to back-to-back National Championships. However, allegations that he may have been responsible, in part, for the death of teammate Devin Willock and a Georgia staff member. Both individuals were involved in a high-speed car race which resulted in a crash that cost Willock his life. It is alleged that Carter was driving another vehicle that was racing with the vehicle that Willock was riding in. While he could have faced felony charges for the incident, he ultimately pled no contest to two misdemeanor charges that resulted in a $1,000 fine, 80 hours of community service, and a year of probation. This paves the way for him to distance himself from this unfortunate incident and Seattle may view the situation as behind the talented defender.
Selecting Carter would make sense as the Seahawks’ defensive front is undeniably in flux at this point. Several of their starting and rotational defensive linemen are either still free agents or have signed with other teams in the offseason, necessitating a restocking of talent up front. The selection of Carter holds risks, for certain but, the upside is hard to argue with as well.
What about the other first round pick Seattle owns, the 20th overall selection?
Well, here is where the Seahawks flip to the other side of the ball and could look to get another weapon for Smith, a flashy new wide receiver to run with D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Marquise Goodwin, the third Seattle wide receiver from last season is currently a free agent and, the fact the Seahawks have yet to re-sign him could point to a desire to draft his replacement in this year’s draft
HOUSTON, TX - DECEMBER 12: Seattle Seahawks wide receiver DK Metcalf (14) carries the ball during the game between the Houston Texans and Seattle Seahawks on December 12, 2021 at NRG Stadium in Houston, TX. (Photo by George Walker)
The two most likely candidates for Seattle here could be Jordan Addison – USC, a well-versed route runner with some elusiveness to create yards after the catch or, Jalin Hyatt – Tennessee, a speedy option that closely matches the speed of Goodwin, allowing the Seahawks to continue to stretch the field, keepings opposing defenses honest and opening up opportunities underneath.
Truly, there is no wrong answer here. While Addison might make more sense for the long-term as his routes will only continue to improve, a truly frightening prospect for opponents to consider, Hyatt could be a more immediate impact player and would not require any shuffling or redesigning of plays to make him fit with what worked for the team last season.
There you have it, Seattle is in an excellent position to get better with even an average draft given how many top selections they have this year. In terms of likelihoods for what I laid out, I would estimate that the Seahawks have roughly a 33 percent chance of Anderson falling to them at the fifth selection and the remaining 67 percent likelihood of them selecting a defensive tackle should he be gone by their pick. In terms of their second first-round pick, selecting a wide receiver simply makes too much sense for them there. As such, I would estimate a 90 percent chance of a wide receiver being the second pick they make with the other ten percent accounting for an edge rusher should they miss out on Anderson.
