The Kupp Nacua Debate

Written by: William Petersen •

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Cooper Kupp

History was made for the Los Angeles Rams twice in their 2021/22 Super Bowl run and eventual championship, their second ever Super Bowl title and Cooper Kupp recording the first receiving triple crown title since Steve Smith Sr. in 2005. Kupp led the league with 145 receptions for 1,947 yards, and 16 touchdowns. This historic season from the once Eastern Washington wideout sparked conversation surrounding if Kupp was the best wideout in the NFL. Following this standout season, Kupp sustained an ankle injury in week 10 of the 2022 season that would force him to sit out the rest of that season. After returning to full health in the offseason, Kupp was primed and ready to have another dominant season with the Rams before injuring his hamstring in training camp on August 1st. Kupp was able to return to practice shortly after sustaining the injury but then was reaggravated in the preseason resulting in the Rams placing Kupp on the injured reserve list. With this designation Kupp has then had to miss the first four games of the 2023 season. In his absence a new sheriff has made his way onto the jumbotron of Sofi Field, 2023 5th round pick Puka Nacua.

Puka Nacua had a fairly modest four seasons in college, two at Washington and the other two at BYU, hauling in 107 receptions for 1749 and 14 touchdowns. This collegiate career curated an interesting role in Sean McVay’s offense by plugging Nacua into the exact role that Kupp embodies when not missing time due to injury. The role that Nacua is replicating while Kupp has been absent is the slot wideout position in McVay’s variation of the wide-zone offense. McVay’s variation of the wide-zone offense is that he likes to keep his skill players close to the offensive line in hopes of stretching the defense laterally, thus opening up lanes for the running game. McVay has continued his variation of this scheme and has found a plug and play solution since the jump in Nacua to fill the void of the injured Kupp.

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In Puka’s first four games, 39 receptions for 501 yards and a TD, Nacua has turned heads in the Rams organization as well as the rest of the league for his record breaking start in the NFL. Nacua has been a lifeline for Mathew Stafford after securing the game winning touchdown catch in their week 4 overtime win over the Indianapolis Colts. Nacua went for 9 catches, 163 yards, and said game winner to further affirm that he will be a vital piece in McVay’s offense moving forward. While the lights are shining bright on Nacua a major question has arised surrounding the 2021 Super Bowl Champion and MVP.

Now that the league has seen what rookie Puka Nacua has been able to accomplish in such a short amount of time in McVay’s offense, people are beginning to wonder if Cooper Kupp is actually as good as everyone believed during his historic campaign two seasons ago. Many are arguing that Kupp’s success should be credited solely to the system that he plays in rather than his actual talent, with Nacua’s stellar start as their primary example. All eyes will be on Kupp once he returns to see if he can return to his Super Bowl MVP form or if Kupp is dependent on McVay’s system and the volume that it brings him. During his triple crown season Kupp averaged 11.24 targets per game. In his first four games Puka Nacua is averaging 13 targets per game. These numbers alone suggest that Nacua is replicating what Kupp did two years ago due to McVay’s tendency of favoring the slot position in target share amongst the offense. When looking at our data from ThePredictors.com, the target share percentage in wide receivers after a hamstring injury decreases by 15 percent. I believe this number could be even higher due to not having Kupp the past 12 games in the past two seasons, meaning McVay will be cautious about getting his star wideout his fair percentage of the target share right out of the gates.

When looking ahead, expect Nacua’s numbers to  regress with the return of Kupp at WR1. This regression will come from a decrease in targets as well as Nacua moving from the slot position to the outside. Nacua might turn into more of a big play type player if Kupp returns to his triple crown season form or close, causing defenses to bring more focus on Kupp leaving Nacua to reap the benefits. Only time will tell if Kupp and Nacua are actually top NFL receivers or if the system built by Sean McVay is one that cultivates the most out of above average wideouts.

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