Thursday Night Football Free Money

    Written by: William Petersen •

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    Patrick Mahomes

    Detroit Lions v. Kansas City Chiefs 9/7/23 8:20 PM EST

    Moneyline: Lions +194 / Chiefs -235

    Spread: Lions +5.5 -115 / Chiefs -5.5 -105

    Total: over/under 52.5 Over -112 Under -105

    Detroit Lions Overview:

    Throughout the offseason the Lions have been one of the most talked about teams due to the culture head coach Dan Campbell has been cultivating in the motor city. From drafting star Alabama running back Jahmyr Gibbs to securing veteran defensive back C.J. Gardner-Johnson in the offseason, the Lions are aiming to live up to their preseason expectations of winning the NFC North for the first time since 1993. The Lions are loaded with potential but this preseason hype will immediately be put to the test week 1 facing the defending NFL MVP and Super Bowl Champions, Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs.

    Kansas City Chiefs Overview:

    After their theatrics in their second Super Bowl parade in three years, the Kansas City Chiefs will come into the 2023 NFL season as the favorites once again to win the Super Bowl. Kansas City has been a model of consistency when it comes to NFL franchises since drafting otherworldly talent Patrick Mahomes with the 10th pick in the 2017 NFL Draft. Mahomes is about to start his sixth season under center in Kansas City, amassing a first ballot hall of fame resume in this short time. Although the Chiefs will have old reliable under center they could potentially be without star tight end Travis Kelce after he left practice with what was diagnosed as a bone bruise on his knee Tuesday. According to reports, if Kansas City’s medical staff can get Kelce’s swelling down in his knee he should be able to play in the season opener. Kelce has not missed a game due to injury since his rookie season in 2013. With this in mind as well as this being week 1, Kelce still has the best odds to be an anytime touchdown scorer at -125. Even if Kelce is limited in snaps, Vegas still believes Travis will find his way into the endzone as long as he can find his way onto the field.

    Picks:

    I have come to the conclusion that it is best to stay away from the moneyline on both ends unless you want a little extra sweat in your Thursday night dinner, then take Lions moneyline at +194. In order to make the most out of your wagers I believe the most value is found in the picks below.

    • Isaiah Pacheco Anytime Touchdown -105
    • Amon-Ra St. Brown over 77.5 receiving yards -114
    • Patrick Mahomes over 285.5 passing yards -114

    Explanation:

    Pacheco:

    I have always been a fan of betting player props over inflated moneyline and questionable spreads. I do think the Chiefs will hold true to their -235 favorite but I am weary of taking the points due to this being week 1 and growing pains are always apparent early in the season. That being said, I do think Isaiah Pacheco scoring an anytime touchdown is a safe bet after Pacheco’s 830 rushing yards and 5 TDs in his rookie season. Pacheco had solid red zone production in 2022, 9 attempts for 14 yards and three out of his five TDs for the season coming inside the opposing teams 20 yard line. This stat alone makes me confident that Pacheco and the Chief’s offense can continue this trend into 2023 thus taking Isaiah Pacheco Anytime Touchdown at -105.

    St. Brown:

    Amon-Ra St. Brown finished top ten in wide receiver rankings in 2022 with 1,161 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns. St. Brown averaged 11 yards per catch in 2022 and this average will only continue to rise as St. Brown’s experience grows. The next player prop that I advise you take on Thursday night is Amon-Ra to have over 77.5 receiving yards. Amon-Ra averaged just over 68 yards per game in 2022 which makes me very keen to take his over prop due to St. Brown being the clear cut WR1 in Detroit’s offense and Jared Goff’s favorite target. If you want a little juice to your Thursday night slip, I would not be surprised to see St. Brown’s Anytime Touchdown at +115 to cash. St.Brown had 6 touchdowns last season but three out of those six came in the red zone, reaffirming that he is Goff’s go to when the Lions need to find paydirt.

    Mahomes:

    The easiest way to make a profit in sports betting is to find the obvious trends. The obvious trend when looking at Kansas City QB1 Patrick Mahomes is that he has out of this world arm strength and accuracy. Mahomes is coming off another MVP and Super Bowl winning season with no signs of slowing down anytime soon. Mahomes averaged 308 passing yards per game last season. This stat is a good predictor of what his week 1 performance could look like but the larger trend is seen below in Mahomes week 1 stats since being a starter in the NFL. Even in his less productive week ones in 2018 and 2020, Mahomes average among the five samples is still 48 yards more than his projected passing prop. Trends aren’t forever but one trend that you can almost bank on his Mahomes to continue his stellar week 1 performances even if the Lions have beefed up their secondary with veteran C.J. Gardner-Johnson.

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