What is going on with the Washington Commanders?
I think few football observers, or even fans of the Commanders themselves, would argue that Washington has been one of the franchises, across any sport, in the most disarray over the past decade. Much of that perception centers around the owner of the team, Dan Snyder, who is unapologetic, opinionated, and, some may say, even brash. Be it scandals around how Washington cheerleaders have been treated, threats to expose damaging information on fellow NFL owners, how the team mishandled the honoring of team great Sean Taylor, issues with FedEx field itself, and yes, of course, the delayed renaming of the franchise itself, just to name a few. In recent weeks, a rumor emerged that Snyder may sell the team, a rumor which may give some hope that the team can turn the page on many such issues.
I mention all of this not to “pile on” but to say that off the field issues have clearly, in my opinion, impacted the on the field quality of the team as each subsequent issue requires resources from the team that would be better spent helping them prepare for their opponents, this includes draft preparation. As such, the Commanders have struggled to have a winning record since 2016, when they went 8-7-1. Since then, the team is 39-58-1. Washington has had many opportunities to draft relatively early in the draft due to their record over that stretch, a position they again find themselves in with the 16th overall pick, exactly the midway point through the first round.
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— Commanders Fans (@CommandersViews) April 21, 2023
What do the Washington Commanders need?
This selection took on a new dimension after the Commanders addressed many offseason needs via free agency, namely reinforcing their offensive line. They have also shown a clear commitment to giving fifth-round selection Sam Howell a chance to win the starting quarterback job while also signing Jacoby Brissett to provide competition, guidance, and insurance, a move that was remarkably well thought out.
With their immediate needs relatively taken care of, Washington could, and frankly should, start to look at needs beyond those for the upcoming season. Needs of this nature often depend upon looking forward to contracts, especially when they expire and the projected amount of cap space available at that point. To this end, there is one clear and undeniable need the Commanders should consider using their first overall selection on, a cornerback.
Washington’s secondary, and defense as a whole, has been one of the strongest parts of their team, especially last season. The Commanders allowed the fourth-fewest passing yards allowed per game, the seventh-fewest points allowed per game, and the third-fewest total yards allowed per game. This was, and continues to be, a very solid unit, by any measure. The problem is less with the performance side of the equation, and more on the contractual side.
Washington’s secondary all have contracts that complete either at the end of this season or next season. Starting cornerback Kendall Fuller is set for a massive payday at the conclusion of the 2023 season, while fellow starting cornerback Benjamin St-Juste will have his contract expire the following and could also demand a significant payday. Meanwhile, nickel cornerback Danny Johnson’s contract will expire in two seasons, back-up cornerback Cameron Dantzler is also set to have his contract complete in two seasons. The Commanders lack the cap space to re-sign their entire secondary, to say nothing of the rest of their defense if they did prioritize the cornerback position. With so many contracts expiring at a single position, all within such close proximity to one another, the time to act is now.
Why would a cornerback be the best option for The Commanders?
By selecting a cornerback with their first round pick, Washington could actually help its cap situation significantly if they go about things wisely. With such a selection, provided the player they select thrives, or at the very least adapts, to the NFL game, they would, almost certainly, not seek to re-sign Fuller, freeing up an immense amount of salary cap space since his potential replacement would be on a rookie contract and, even at the height of their rookie deal, would be making roughly a quarter of what Fuller does each season of his current contract. Then, if Commanders do something similar again next season, it would not even have to be a first round selection, maybe a Day Two pick, then they would avoid a ticking contract time bomb.
The burning question still exists though, which player would make the most sense in this scenario?
An incredibly interesting option could be that of Joey Porter Jr. – Penn State. Porter is one of the more physical and physically gifted cornerbacks available in this class. He is exceptional in press coverage, working to jam up and reroute receivers the instant the ball is snapped. Filling a similar role to that of Fuller, Porter is a bit larger but less of a ball hawk as well, meaning interceptions may dip just a bit, but even Fuller’s interception numbers have not been astronomical in recent seasons.
WEST LAFAYETTE, IN - SEPTEMBER 01: Penn State Nittany Lions cornerback Joey Porter Jr. (9) breaks up a pass during the college football game between the Purdue Boilermakers and Penn State Nittany Lions on September 1, 2022, at Ross-Ade Stadium in West Lafayette, IN. (Photo by Zach Bolinger/Icon Sportswire)
This selection makes all the sense in the world which, is why, it likely will not happen. In the event Washington is unable to select Porter, two additional options could be Kelee Ringo – Georgia or Emmanuel Forbes – Mississippi State. While both are a bit less appealing than Porter in terms of physicality, each is a bit faster than Porter and likely even Fuller. They both are willing supporters against the rush and could actually produce slight upticks in interceptions over Fuller. However, both can be a bit too grabby downfield which could also see pass interference penalties tick upwards as well. Either Ringo or Forbes would make truly excellent picks for the Commanders but, Porter is the prize here, hands down.
So just how likely is it that Washington selects one of these players? I am all but convinced the pick needs to be a cornerback, no other position has the contract situation that this one does and so many of the Commanders’ immediate needs are under control. Therefore, in terms of likelihood that the pick is a cornerback, I would place that at roughly 95 percent with the other five percent being a surprise selection or a trade out of the pick entirely. In regard to which player Washington is likely to select, I would assign an 80 percent likelihood to the pick being Porter with each Ringo and Forbes accounting for ten percent each.
