A top picked running back by many fantasy experts this offseason, Jahmyr Gibbs was expected to have a breakout season. Gibbs who accumulated 945 yards and 10TDs as a rookie despite missing two regular season games has everything you would look for in a fantasy running back. A great center of gravity, good acceleration when he hits an open hole, good change of direction and vision just to name a few. Combine those traits with a top tier team who can score, and you are looking at fantasy bliss.
Could Jahmyr Gibbs be the overall RB1 in fantasy football this year? pic.twitter.com/5Xtg3C9OBB
— Kyle Yates (@KyleYNFL) July 23, 2024
You will see Gibbs pop up somewhere in the range of RB5 - RB8 depending on most sites that you look at. Some thought he should be higher than that. As a biased Alabama Alum I have always rooted for Gibbs and may even have been one of those overzealous individuals who would have died on that hill. His recent hamstring injury however will make you pause now and ask yourself, is this a cause for concern, or no big deal?
Well, let’s talk about that shall we? First things first we always must check the temperature of the team/coach and what they say. The good news there is that they are calling it a grade 1 hamstring strain and last week Dan Campbell appeared on 97.1 The Ticket saying “I think we’ll be good” when asked about Gibbs. So, we start off well. Most coaches I take with a grain of salt as they always seem to downplay injuries but Dan Campbell is a pretty straight shooter so I like that he is at a minimum at least optimistic. He also didn’t come out and say he is great!
"\\[Jahmyr] Gibbs, our plan is to get him going next week. He's trending the right way."
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) August 20, 2024
Dan Campbell adds that the Lions are hopeful to get a bunch of notable players back on the field this Sunday. https://t.co/SLyrTJkgna
With that we pop over to the next factor, injury history. Here is where we start to see a trend I don’t like. In 2023 those two games I mentioned that he missed…you guessed it, were for a hamstring injury he sustained Week 4. That makes me a little nervous that he may be injury prone to hamstring injuries at that which makes a player unreliable on the fantasy roster. The good news from this if there is some is that he returned and didn’t re-aggravate that injury later in the season. That most definitely makes it less worrisome.
Let’s finish this off with some data on Hamstring injuries to make sure we look at all sides of this issue. For running backs who play at least 50% of snaps they miss 3.5 - 4 weeks on average. With Gibbs doing this on August 12th he is right on the cusp to play week 1. A grade 1 puts him in a good position to be ready. When running backs return from Hamstrings it usually takes at least 2 games to get back to pre-injury levels. The best news is they do return to pre-injury performance however and if given the right time to recover they come back well.
So, what does this all mean for fantasy? Should you draft Jahmyr Gibbs? The short answer is yes. I think he will return and give you tremendous upside if the team gives him the time off, he needs which it seems like they are given they are holding him out of the preseason. With that said, don’t be surprised if he doesn’t show out until week 2 or 3. Week 1 will most definitely be a test for him if he plays and he will most likely have a bit of a snap count to make sure he feels ok. If that goes well then, I expect him to ramp up and be ready to put up numbers for your squad week 2 if he still feels tightness push that out to week 3 or 4.
Either way, even if you need to stash him on your bench to start he will be a huge asset down the line.
*Tyler is an Athletic Trainer who has experience in the NFL and Collegiate football as well as surgical intervention
