Thanksgiving Day NFL Preview

    Written by: William Petersen •

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    Another year of family, friends, and football is upon us as Week 13 of the NFL season gets jump started by a three-game slate on Turkey day. The classic two Turkey day teams in Dallas and Detroit will be hosting their regularly scheduled home Thanksgiving day game while the Green Bay Packers will round off the night with a snowy, cold game in Lambeau Field. The South Beach boys, in the Miami Dolphins, will make the long trek north to see if they can finally break the narrative around their head coach’s inability to win in cold games and continue their playoff push. If you are a fan of these teams or not this Thanksgiving Day slate will have any football fan and sports gambler foaming at the mouth and I will give you all the information you need to either sound like you know what you are talking about at the dinner table or making back your money from buying all the Thanksgiving food.

    Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions 12:30 PM EST CBS/Paramount+

    The (4-7) Chicago Bears travel to Ford Field for a NFC North Division showdown with the (10-1) Detroit Lions. The Bears bring a five-game losing streak into this Thanksgiving Day matchup while the Lions surprisingly have lost seven-straight Thanksgiving Day games dating back to 2016. The Lions have been an absolute juggernaut this season, winning nine-straight games after losing to Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 2 but have only gotten stronger as a team since that early season hiccup. Jared Goff continues to lead a Lions’ offense that is ranked number two in total offense in the NFL as well as sixth in passing offense and fourth in rushing offense. The Chicago Bears are led by rookie quarterback and number one overall pick Caleb Williams who is finally realizing what it is like to be the Bears quarterback as Chicago continues to not give Williams enough support to win games. Coming into the season, everyone was talking about how no rookie QB has ever come into such a high-powered offense with weapons like Keenan Allen, DJ Moore, and De’Andre Swift. This narrative turned sour almost from the first kick off of the season as the Bears’ rank 26th out of 32 in total offense, 29th in passing offense, and 23rd in rushing offense. Williams has shown signs of why he was taken number one overall in the 2024 NFL Draft but the Bears continue to show why they have not had any postseason success since they have not won a playoff game since 2011, the longest active streak in the NFL. The spread for this game is the Lions by 11 points and I believe the public will be hammering this line as the Lions have shown no reason why you shouldn’t put your hard earned money on them after this impressive nine-game win streak. With that being said the Lions have notoriously struggled on Thanksgiving in their franchise’s history with an all-time record of 37-45-2 and because of that I will be fading the public and taking the Bears plus the 10.5 points.

    Bears +10.5

    New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys 4:30 PM EST Fox

    Another divisional rivalry game graces our screens in the second game of the Thanksgiving Day triple header with the struggling (2-9) New York Giants head to “Jerry World” for a date with the lackluster (4-7) Cowboys. The Giants this past week cut former first round pick Daniel Jones, who they are paying $40 million a year, and have just reported that they will be starting Drew Lock after Tommy DeVito will be unable to play due to injury. Dallas’ highest-paid player and quarterback Dak Prescott will also not be playing as he was put on IR after having season-ending surgery on his hamstring following a Week 8 loss to the Atlanta Falcons. With Prescott out for the year, they have looked to fabled backup Cooper Rush who helped the Cowboys get a surprising win in Week 12 over the Washington Commanders after a lot of help from his special teams unit. The last time these two faced off on Thanksgiving was in 2022 where the Cowboys won 28-20 but this matchup could go either way. Both offenses rank 20th or lower in the NFL while the Giants have a slight edge in defensive ranking, 19th out of 32 teams while the Cowboys are ranked 27th. With backup quarterbacks starting for both teams it will be interesting to see if the game will be a points fest or a contest of which team can punt the ball more. Although the announcement of Drew Lock starting for the Giants makes my pick a little more questionable, I am going with the Cowboys to cover an alternative spread of -2.5 in a game that just seems like it will go their way since it is Thanksgiving and in Dallas. The set spread is -3.5 in favor of the Cowboys but I am not confident enough in Cooper Rush to win by more than a field goal thus explaining why I am taking Dallas on an alt spread.  Jerry Jones has had a tough year as the Cowboys owner but it would only be fitting to see his team win on Thanksgiving as they have done the past two years.

    Cowboys -2.5 (alternative spread)

    Miami Dolphins vs. Green Bay Packers 8:20 PM EST NBC/Peacock

    The final game of the Thanksgiving Day slate finds the (5-6) Miami Dolphins going on the road for an expected low temperature night game at Lambeau Field with the (8-3) Green Bay Packers. The Dolphins have had an interesting season after seeing starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa go down with another serious head injury earlier in the campaign but Tua is back and seems to be finding his groove after winning their last three games. The Green Bay Packers are one of the NFL’s hottest teams after winning six out of their last eight games thanks to second year starter Jordan Love and his commanding leadership of a young Packers offense. Josh Jacobs is coming off a three touchdown performance in Week 12 and all signs make sense as to why the Packers are a 3.5 point favorite on Thursday night. While the Packers have a losing record on Thanksgiving day games in their franchise history, (15-20-2), Green Bay continues to find ways to put up points and blow teams out. Green Bay ranks fifth in total offense, 11th in passing offense, and third in rushing offense while the Dolphins sit at the middle of the pack in those metrics; ranking 19th in total and passing offense and 16th in rushing offense. While the Dolphins offense has not been what many people expected this season, their defense has exceeded expectations as Miami ranks seventh in total defense, eighth in pass defense, and ninth in rush defense. If the Dolphins are going to have any success with breaking Mike McDaniels’ terrible cold weather game record, (3-7) in games that are 23 degrees or colder, the Dolphins defense will have to be firing on all cylinders to slow down a high octane Packers offense. The worst news for Dolphins fans as well is that the weather forecast in Green Bay is calling for a high of 31 degrees during the day while it will drop down to a chilly 23 degrees with an addition of snowfall come gametime. This game could be the game to ruin a lot of people’s parlays if you decide to take all favorites but I am rolling with Jordan Love and the red hot Packers’ offense, taking them and the points at Packers -3.5

    Packers -3.5

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