After multiple ankle setbacks, is the JT bounce-back already priced in — or is a fantasy and DFS trap waiting to happen? Here’s what the data says.
BACKGROUND:
Running backs (RBs) in the National Football League (NFL) experience some of the highest physical demands and injury rates among all positions. Of note, ankle injuries are particularly prevalent due to the cutting, pivoting, and high-contact nature of their position. The frequency and performance implications of these injuries can have a significant effect on fantasy football, daily fantasy sports (DFS), and sports betting markets. While performance metrics are often commonly understood, injury analysis is usually a more nuanced skill. Comprehensive analyses are frequently limited to incomplete data sets and limited detailed information provided in injury reports, ultimately hindering the identification of consistent trends.
This review present a meta-analysis of injury data collected by The Predictors over the past four seasons (2021–2024), focusing specifically on the incidence, type, and severity of ankle injuries among RBs.
The objective is to understand better injury patterns to inform more accurate projections and risk assessments in fantasy football, daily fantasy sports (DFS), and sports betting markets.
Lateral Ankle Sprains
The most common ankle injury, involving the ATFL, CFL, and PTFL ligaments on the outside of the ankle.
Usually result from inversion during cutting or landing. Often considered “mild,” but repeated lateral sprains can lead to chronic instability.
Medial Ankle Sprains
Less common, these involve the deltoid ligament on the inner ankle.
Typically occur from external rotation or eversion injuries. Often involve longer recovery than lateral sprains and may indicate more serious structural issues.
High Ankle Sprains
Injuries to the syndesmosis (AITFL, PIFTL) that connect the tibia and fibula.
Result from twisting or external rotation while planted. Tend to require the most time missed and have the largest drop-off in performance post-return.
Jonathan Taylor Injury Timeline 2022-2024:
2022 Lateral / High Ankle Sprain Missed Weeks 5, 6, 9 IR in Week 16
2023 PUP-R: Weeks 1-4 - High Ankle Sprain Thumb Surgery - Missed 3 Weeks
2024 Missed Weeks 5,6,7 - High Ankle Sprain
Lateral Ankle Sprains:
Incidence Rate: 3.3 per 1000 appearances
Avg. Time Lost: 2.8 ± 1.9 weeks
Re-injury Rate: 21.6%
High Ankle Sprains:
Incidence Rate: 6.2 per 1000 appearances
Avg. Time Lost: 4.2 ± 1.9 weeks
Re-injury Rate: 26.7%
Before & After: What Does the Data Say?
On average NFL RBs see a decrease of 24.6% in fantasy PPR after high ankle sprain
PERFORMANCE STATS (NFL - RB)
Snap Percentage: 17.8% decrease
Rushing TDs: 52.8% decrease
Rushing Yards: 26.4% decrease
JONATHAN TAYLOR: FANTASY PRODUCTION
Pre-Injury: 19.1 points per game played
Post-Injury: 16.1 points per game played
~16% Decrease
