Can Jonathan Taylor Return to All-Pro Form — Or Is He Just a Name Now?

    Written by: Zach Foster

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    Fantasy Football

    Jonathan Taylor

    After multiple ankle setbacks, is the JT bounce-back already priced in — or is a fantasy and DFS trap waiting to happen? Here’s what the data says.

    BACKGROUND:

    Running backs (RBs) in the National Football League (NFL) experience some of the highest physical demands and injury rates among all positions. Of note, ankle injuries are particularly prevalent due to the cutting, pivoting, and high-contact nature of their position. The frequency and performance implications of these injuries can have a significant effect on fantasy football, daily fantasy sports (DFS), and sports betting markets. While performance metrics are often commonly understood, injury analysis is usually a more nuanced skill. Comprehensive analyses are frequently limited to incomplete data sets and limited detailed information provided in injury reports, ultimately hindering the identification of consistent trends.

    This review present a meta-analysis of injury data collected by The Predictors over the past four seasons (2021–2024), focusing specifically on the incidence, type, and severity of ankle injuries among RBs.

    The objective is to understand better injury patterns to inform more accurate projections and risk assessments in fantasy football, daily fantasy sports (DFS), and sports betting markets.

    1. Lateral Ankle Sprains

    The most common ankle injury, involving the ATFL, CFL, and PTFL ligaments on the outside of the ankle.

    Usually result from inversion during cutting or landing. Often considered “mild,” but repeated lateral sprains can lead to chronic instability.

    1. Medial Ankle Sprains

    Less common, these involve the deltoid ligament on the inner ankle.

    Typically occur from external rotation or eversion injuries. Often involve longer recovery than lateral sprains and may indicate more serious structural issues.

    1. High Ankle Sprains

    Injuries to the syndesmosis (AITFL, PIFTL) that connect the tibia and fibula.

    Result from twisting or external rotation while planted. Tend to require the most time missed and have the largest drop-off in performance post-return.

    Jonathan Taylor Injury Timeline 2022-2024:

    2022 Lateral / High Ankle Sprain Missed Weeks 5, 6, 9 IR in Week 16

    2023 PUP-R: Weeks 1-4 - High Ankle Sprain Thumb Surgery - Missed 3 Weeks

    2024 Missed Weeks 5,6,7 - High Ankle Sprain

    Lateral Ankle Sprains:

    Incidence Rate: 3.3 per 1000 appearances

    Avg. Time Lost: 2.8 ± 1.9 weeks

    Re-injury Rate: 21.6%

    High Ankle Sprains:

    Incidence Rate: 6.2 per 1000 appearances

    Avg. Time Lost: 4.2 ± 1.9 weeks

    Re-injury Rate: 26.7%

    Before & After: What Does the Data Say?

    On average NFL RBs see a decrease of 24.6% in fantasy PPR after high ankle sprain

    PERFORMANCE STATS (NFL - RB)

    Snap Percentage: 17.8% decrease

    Rushing TDs: 52.8% decrease

    Rushing Yards: 26.4% decrease

    JONATHAN TAYLOR: FANTASY PRODUCTION

    Pre-Injury: 19.1 points per game played

    Post-Injury: 16.1 points per game played

    ~16% Decrease

    Give us your thoughts on how you think Jonathan will do this year after dealing with ankle issues for the past several seasons.