The first few weeks of December were rough for the Kansas City Chiefs offensive line. On December 3rd OT Josh Simmons was placed on IR with a wrist injury, T Jawaan Taylor (triceps/knee) and G Trey Smith (ankle) were on the week 14 injury report and didn’t suit up for week 14 or 15. Leading up to week 15, OT Wayna Morris was placed on IR with a knee injury. During the week 15 matchup against the Chargers, OT Jaylon Moore, who was starting in place of the injured starters. sustained a knee injury during the first drive and attempted to play through it but didn’t return for the second half.
By the numbers
Since the primary roles of the Oline are protecting the quarterback and opening up lanes for the run game, it’s no surprise with the upheaval on the Chiefs Oline that Mahomes was sacked 5 times and the team racked up a total of 49 yards rushing in week 15. The culmination of the Chiefs offensive struggles came late in the 4th quarter when Mahomes was under pressure and tore his ACL as he threw the ball away. The Chiefs lost the game and were eliminated from playoff contention. The week 15 struggles were not an isolated event. An analysis of quarterback play in relation to offensive line health confirms what we intuitively expect to be true: the healthier the Oline, the better Mahomes plays. To objectively look at Oline health, we calculated the Banged Up Score (BUS) for the position group each week and compared it to offensive performance statistics. Our data shows that with an Oline BUS above 60, Mahomes threw an average of 255.5 yards per game. If the Oline BUS was below 60, he averaged 202.5 yards per game passing.
Prediction implications
Looking at the Chiefs Oline injuries and their direct impact on Mahomes’ injury and general performance might provide some insight for football fans, fantasy owners and sports bettors. Setting expectations for QB performance needs to involve more than looking at the skill of the QB and receiving corps, or the toughness of the defense they face, it needs to consider the health of the men responsible for keeping everyone else on their feet. Next time you’re looking to take the over on passing yards, check the injury report. When choosing between QBs to start in your fantasy playoffs, check the injury report. The Oline may not have flashy stats to prove their worth, but they’re the foundation of any successful offense.
