Two phrases that seem to be linked more often than we would like are “MetLife Stadium” and “season ending injury”. The stadium in New York has developed a reputation after being the field where multiple notable and significant injuries have occurred. Despite replacing the playing surface with a different type of artificial turf in 2023 which is supposed to be a safer type of artificial turf, players continue to push for real grass.
During Sunday’s win over the Chargers, Giants WR Malik Nabers jumped to reach for a ball and came down holding his right knee. He was carted to the locker room and did not return to the game. On Monday Giants staff confirmed an ACL tear. The ACL is a ligament that runs through the centre of the knee and is important for stability, particularly during any cutting or pivoting.
Turf, ACL injury and recovery
ACL tears happen most often when the foot is planted and the knee rotates inwards, the same action as when Malik pushed to takeoff on Sunday. The link between playing surface and ACL injuries is that when the turf is too “sticky”, the planted foot can’t pivot or slide, so there's more force and rotation at the knee. Our injury tracking data shows that the odds of having a season-ending lower body injury is significantly higher on turf compared to grass. Analysis of injuries from the 2021 and 2022 seasons showed 30 ACL tears on artificial turf compared to 17 on grass, even though there are 3 fewer teams with turf fields than grass (1).
The best treatment for a torn ACL tear in a football player is surgery to reconstruct the ligament. An ACL reconstruction includes taking other tissue (gold standard is taking it from the same person’s patellar tendon, below the kneecap) to completely replace the original ACL.
Recovery from an ACL reconstruction is typically between 9 and 12 months. There have been instances of faster returns, but injury tracking shows that the risk of re-tearing is much higher before that 9-month mark. From a medical perspective, since the surgery includes creating a new ligament out of other tissue, giving the new tissue enough time to strengthen and solidify is important for the long-term survival of the reconstruction.
Fantasy implications for next year
Nabers is out for this year, but let’s dive into dynasty league implications or looking forward to next year’s draft. We looked back at our data for starting receivers (greater than 50% snap share) and compared production for the season after returning from ACL reconstruction to stats from the season before injury. The numbers show that generally receivers average a decrease in receptions across the board, by 22.79%. Over the 15 games Nabers dressed for in 2024, he averaged 7.27 receptions per game, so if he follows the trends we’ve seen in the past, he may still see an average of 5.61 receptions per game which still keeps him close to the 6 or 7 receptions many top tier receivers bring in. One interesting finding in our data is yards after the catch, which generally saw an average 17.17% decrease, but there was a lot of variability. In his first season back, OBJ actually averaged an increase of 5 yards after the catch compared to pre-injury. Overall, it looks promising for Nabers to return as a solid fantasy option in 2026.
- Venishetty N, Xiao AX, Ghanta R, Reddy R, Pandya NK, Feeley BT. Lower Extremity Injury Rates on Artificial Turf Versus Natural Grass Surfaces in the National Football League During the 2021 and 2022 Seasons. Orthop J Sports Med. 2024;12(8):23259671241265378. Published 2024 Aug 29. doi:10.1177/23259671241265378
