Week 11 TNF Preview: Jets vs. Patriots

Written by: Miles Jordan,William Petersen •

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Drake Maye

The best team in the AFC East plays host to the worst team in the division, and one of the just one of five teams with two wins or less. The New England Patriots are back on top of the AFC with the help of second-year quarterback Drake Maye. Meanwhile, the New York Jets are struggling to put wins on the board in their first season with head coach Aaron Glenn.

New England (8-2)

Maye is having the best season of his short career in his second season with the Patriots. The North Carolina graduate has thrown for 2,555 passing yards, 19 touchdowns and just five interceptions while completing 71.7% of his passes en route to New England’s best season since Tom Brady was its signal caller.

He has done it by finding a plethora of pass catchers in the endzone — five different recievers have caught multiple touchdown passes. Stephon Diggs leads the team in receptions (50) and receiving yards (554) and has caught three touchdown passes, while Kayshon Boutte leads the team in touchdown receptions (5). Tight end Hunter Henry (4), Demario Douglas (3) and Mack Hollins (2) have also caught multiple TD passes. However, Boutte has been ruled out of Thursday nights contest with New York with a hamstring injury.

Running backs Treveyon Henderson (81) and Rhamondre Stevenson (83) have split carries this season however Henderson will be the primary back against the Jets since Stevenson has been ruled out with a toe injury. Henderson has tallied 430 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns, as well as the Patriots' longest rush of the season — a 69-yard touchdown run.

This will be the first of two divisional matchups between the two AFC East foes. The Jets will host the Patriots in New York in Week 17.

New York (2-7)

While the Jets started off the season with seven consecutive losses, New York faces the top team in the division coming off two consecutive wins over AFC opponents — defeating the Cincinnati Bengals and Cleveland Browns in Weeks 8 and 10 (BYE Week 9).

Quarterback Justin Fields will be the signal caller for New York, despite missing a game due to a concussion suffered earlier in the season. In his eight games he has tallied 1,143 passing yards and thrown for six touchdowns while tossing a single interception. However, his favorite target, Garrett Wilson, has been ruled out of Thursday night’s contest with a knee injury.

Wilson has tallied 36 receptions for 395 receiving yards and four touchdowns, and is the only New York pass catcher to record multiple touchdown receptions. The second most targeted pass catcher has been tight end Mike taylor who has caught 30 passes for 246 yards and a touchdown. Running back Breece Hall has recorded the most all-purpose yards of any skill player on the roster. He has recorded 138 carries for 664 rushing yards and two touchdowns, while catching 22 passes for 220 yards and a score.

If the Jets are looking to upset the Patriots on the road, Fields will have to produce at a siginfigantly higher rate than he did in Week 10 against Clevland where he completed just six passes for 54 yards, and threw and touchdown as well as an interception. New York was able to survive thanks to its special teams. Kene Nwangwu ran back a kickoff return for a touchdown, and Isaiah Williams housed a punt return.

Stats to know:

Jets:

-28th in total offense / 32nd in passing offense (143.8 ypg)  / 4th in rushing offense (141.8 ypg)

-19th in total defense / 8th in passing defense (190.8 ypg) / 25th in rushing defense (138.3 ypg)

-21.7 points per game / 26.8 points allowed per game

-311.3 yards per game / 341.9 yards allowed per game

- Jets are 2-8 vs the Patriots in the last 10 matchups

- Jets are 1-4 on the road vs the Patriots on the road in the last 10 matchups

-Jets are 5-4 against the spread this season / 3-4 ATS after a loss

-Breece Hall averages 73.8 rushing yards per game / 2 rushing touchdowns this season

- Jets have covered the spread in their last two games

- 2-1 ATS this season of +6 points or more

Patriots:

- 10th in total offense / 8th in passing offense (241.4 ypg) / 16th in rushing offense (117.1 ypg)

- 8th in total defense / 21st in passing defense (227 ypg) / 1st in rushing defense (79.2 ypg)

-26.5 points per game / 19.2 points allowed to opponents per game

-371.1 yards per game / 316.1 yards allowed to opponents per game

-Patriots are 7-3 against the spread this season

-5-2 ATS after a win this season

- 2-3 ATS at home this season

- 5-0 ATS as a favorite of -5.5 points or more

Odds per DraftKings Sportsbook: Patriots -12.5 / Total O/U 43.5 / Jets ML +575

Best bets:

  1. Patriots -12.5

- The Jets have been one of the worst and most inconsistent teams in the NFL this season. They have recently found success, winning two straight games, but the quarterback play from Justin Fields has been shaky all season especially after being benched at halftime in their win over the Browns last week. Fields will be starting tonight due to Tyrod Taylor being injured and even though the Jets are on a win streak, they only are because their defense and special teams recorded two touchdowns last week. On the flip side of the coin, the Patriots have been a wagon all season. Some do not give their 8-2 record much merit due to the strength of their schedule but the Patriots are one of the best teams against the spread so far this season which makes it tough to not take them and the points. Primetime divisional games seem to be more unpredictable than Sunday-day games but there should be little doubt that the Patriots let a bitter rival hang around especially with the way second year quarterback Drake Maye has been playing. Their rush defense is going to shut down Breece Hall early, forcing Fields to throw which is not his strong suit and Maye and the Pats offense should continue to click as they have so far this season.

  1. Stefon Diggs anytime touchdown (+140)

- Diggs is the clear cut WR1 for Maye and has cleared this line in 5-out-of-10 games this season. 50% is not the most appealing hit percentage for a bet but with the exit of Sauce Gardner, the Jets secondary is still adjusting to not having their best corner in the secondary anymore and Drake Maye has been surgical with his passes this season. Diggs and Maye have quickly developed a lethal chemistry with Diggs, and Diggs has scored in the last three straight games. I expect Diggs to have a big night along with the entire Patriots offense against a Jets team that is just fighting for a top three draft pick at this point in the season.

Injury Report

Patriots

The New England Patriots’ injury situation improved over the course of the week with multiple players participating fully by Wednesday practice. Unfortunately, RB Rhamondre Stevenson was not one of those, and has been ruled out for the TNF game. Without Stevenson, expect TreVeyon Henderson to see the majority of carries again, particularly after putting up over 140 yards rushing last week against Tampa Bay. Also on offense, WR Kayshon Boutte will miss another game with a hamstring injury. Since hamstring injuries can significantly limit acceleration and top speed, taking another week to get back to peak performance may benefit him in the long run. Another player with a hamstring injury is LB Jack Gibbens, who should factor in on run defence this week.

Jets

Key injuries to be aware of for the NY Jets include WR Garrett Wilson who has been ruled out with a knee injury. Losing Wilson will likely cause NY to lean on their run game, led by Breece Hall, which will be a big task against the Patriots’ stout run defence. Another area of concern is on the defensive side, where D linemen Will McDonald IV, Harrison Phillips and Braiden McGregor are listed as questionable with quad, foot and shoulder injuries respectively. With the Patriots putting up a season high 435 yards of offence last week, the Jets will need a solid front line.

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