Week 12 preview: Falcons vs. Saints, Buccaneers vs. Rams

Written by: Miles Jordan,William Petersen •

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The Banged Up Score (BUS)

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Rams vs. Buccaneers

As the NFL calendar turns toward the late-season stretch, two matchups with very different stakes take center stage. In the NFC South, the Falcons and Saints renew one of football’s fiercest rivalries, each team battling injuries, inconsistency, and the pressure of keeping playoff hopes alive. Across the country, Los Angeles is surging behind an explosive offense, and Tampa Bay is fighting to stabilize its season before the playoff picture slips away.

Here is The Predictors' guide to the top two divisional matchups of the weekend:

Falcons vs. Saints

Two teams that have struggled with victory this season. The Saints are on the hunt for their first consecutive victory of the season, while the Falcons are looking for their first win since early October.

Atlanta

The Falcons are entering Week 12 hoping to snap a five-game losing streak after falling to the Carolina Panthers in Week 11, and now look to do so without their starting quarterback.

Second-year signal caller Michael Penix Jr. was officially sidelined after having season-ending knee surgery on his torn ACL. Penix was injured in the third quarter of Atlanta's 30-27 loss to the Panthers, when he was tackled on a passing attempt and planted awkwardly on his left leg.

This leaves backup quarterback Kirk Cousins as the starter against New Orleans.

To make matters worse, star wide receiver Drake London has been ruled out with a PCL injury. For the Falcons to find success, they must rely on their running game and running back Bijan Robinson to take some pressure off of Cousins.

New Orleans

The Saints have struggled on offense the entire season, and rank 26th in total yardage and 30th in points scored this year; however, they are coming off a bye week, which gives them a chance to reset.

Quarterback Tyler Shough will remain the signal caller for the Saints, after taking over from Spencer Rattler earlier in the season; however, he has been losing targets ever so quickly losing targets.

While Chris Olave is having one of his best seasons as a professional, the Saints traded away Rashid Shaheed, and veteran receiver Brandin Cooks has requested a trade from the team. Like Atlanta, New Orleans will need to rely on its running game, with veteran running back Alvin Kamara in the backfield.

Stats to know:

Falcons:

- 16th in total offense / 18th in passing offense (212.6 ypg) / 13th rushing offense (119.9 ypg)

- 16th in total defense / 6th in passing defense (188 ypg) / 28th in rushing defense (138.5 ypg)

- 19.5 points per game / 23.9 points allowed per game

- 343.1 yards per game / 348.6 yards allowed per game

- 4-5-1 ATS / 2-2 ATS as road team

- 3-2-1 ATS after a loss

- Falcons have lost 5-straight / 1-4 on the road this season

- Falcons and Saints are 56-56 all time in matchups

- Kirk Cousins is 3-4 vs the Saints all time in his career in regular season

- Averages vs Saints: 301.9 passing yards / 1.9 touchdowns / 0.6 interceptions

Saints:

- 26th in total offense / 20th in passing offense (204.4 ypg) / 28th in rushing offense (92.8 ypg)

- 11th in total defense / 9th in passing defense (193.7 ypg) / 21st in rushing defense (123.8 ypg)

- 15.5 points per game / 25 points allowed per game

- 311.9 yards per game / 331.1 yards allowed per game

- 3-7 ATS / 1-4 ATS and SU at home

- 0-1 ATS after a win

- Saints have lost 4/5 games

- Tyler Shough is 1-1 as a starter

Odds per DraftKings Sportsbook: Saints -2.5 / Total O/U 40.5 / Falcons ML +114

Best bets:

  1. Over 40,5 total points (-105)

- This NFC South rivalry game should produce more fireworks than what these teams' records show. With both back up quarterbacks playing for the Falcons and Saints it seems like the public will be laying the under. It makes sense why the public would lean this direction with how inconsistent these two offenses are but I believe both Shough and Cousins will play like they have something to prove on Sunday afternoon in a rivalry game where you will need to score at least 21 points if you want to win. Fade the public and take nearly even money in a game that will be a surprising shootout in the afternoon slate.

  1. Bijan Robinson anytime touchdown (-155)

- Bijan is one of the most explosive players in the NFL and even though he only has four rushing touchdowns on the season, Bijan will need to have a big day on the ground if the Falcons are going to end their losing streak. Bijan had two rushing touchdowns last week in their loss to the Panthers and with Kirk Cousins taking the reigns for an injured Michael Penix Jr, Bijan’s workload should increase with the limited amount of playing time Cousins has had this season. The value isn’t the best but Bijan to find the endzone in a key divisional game is a lock.

  1. Kirk Cousins under 205.5 passing yards (-111)

- Although Cousins has been a steady quarterback for the majority of is career, the lack of playing time and consistent starts this season has seemed to put a number on his arm and ability to make correct reads. I do not think the Falcons will be relying on his arm to win this game which has me leaning towards his under for passing yards. Bijan Robinson will get the majority of the work and with Drake London most likely not playing, I feel even better about Cousins going under on passing yards since his next best pass catching option is Kyle Pitts. This number is a little scary for how low it is but I will have to see it to believe it with Cousins due to his age and limited game reps.

Injury Report

Saints

This week Banged Up Score: 79.3

Past 4 weeks’ BUS:

Week 8: 82.8

Week 9: 81

Week 10: 78.5

Week 11: BYE

The Saints’ BUS got a small boost this week which is what we like to see with teams coming off their bye, although there is still a lot of room for improvement, particularly on the offense. The Saints’ offense has struggled all season, tied for 30th in the league for average points per game at 15.5. This offensive struggle is reflected in their injury report, with RB Alvin Kamara headlining the report with an ongoing ankle injury that has limited him in practice for over a month. Despite not missing any games, Kamara’s performance isn’t what we’re used to seeing from the dynamic back. Going into their Week 11 bye, Kamara was averaging fewer yards per carry and per reception than anyother year in his career (3.6 and 5.9 respectively). Some of this lack of explosive playmaking might be attributed to pain and a lack of confidence in the ankle. The Saints’ offense isn’t helped by the injuries on the O line, with T Taliese Fuaga also listed as questionable. Fuaga was injured in week 9 against the Rams and did not play in the Week 10 loss to the Panthers.

Falcons

This weeks’ Banged Up Score: 67.2

Past 4 weeks BUS:

Week 8: 80.8

Week 9: 79.3

Week 10: 79.6

Week 11: 75.1

The Falcons’ BUS rolled downhill this week, driven largely by the loss of starting QB Michael Penix for the remainder of the season to a partially torn ACL. Even though the Falcons stated that the ACL tear was not a complete tear, partial ACL tears often result in similar knee instability, pain, and dysfunction as complete tears and the gold-standard treatment for elite athletes is a full ACL reconstruction. If everything goes to plan and Penix returns in the typical 9-month timeframe, that should put him back on the field around August to prepare for next season. Veteran QB Kirk Cousins will be starting with Penix out, but the offense is still less than solid with starting right and left guards Chris Lindstrom (foot) and Matthew Bergeron (ankle) both questionable, and top WR Drake London out (knee). On the defensive side there is a possibility of improvement with LB

Buccaneers vs. Rams

Week 12's edition of Sunday night football is an NFC showdown between the red-hot Los Angeles Rams and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who are looking for their footing in the conference. LA looks to win its sixth straight, while Tampa Bay is hoping for its first win in November.

Tampa Bay

The Buccaneers enter Week 12 losing three of their last four games, and have a chance to get their head back in the game with a Sunday night win over the Rams.

Quarterback Baker Mayfield is still the signal caller on offense, but he has lost some valuable weapons in his receiving corps. Wide receiver Mike Evans suffered a season-ending injury earlier in the season, and Chris Godwin is questionable to go tonight. While he still has rookie phenom Emeka Egbuka, now that he is the top target, he has stronger coverage on him on defense.

Running back Sean Tucker has been a bright spot on Tampa Bay's offense. He tallied his first 100-plus yard rushing performance in the Buccaneers' loss to the Buffalo Bills in Week 11, and also scored a season-high two touchdowns. Tucker has gotten the opportunity to shine since Buccaneers' starting running back Bucky Irving has missed extended time due to injury this season.

Los Angeles

The Rams are riding a five-game winning streak and are one of the hottest teams in the NFC right now.

Quarterback Matthew Stafford has thrown 27 touchdowns to just two interceptions, and has had a plethora of weapons to find down the field. Wide receivers Davonte Adams and Puka Nacua have been Stafford's favorite targets, and both will look to take advantage of Tampa Bay's secondary tonight.

On the ground, running back Kyren Williams has balanced out the Rams' offense, but has also been a threat out of the backfield. The biggest question is whether the Bucs will be able to put pressure on Stafford, who has been protected well this entire season.

Stats to know:

Buccaneers:

- 17th in total offense / 15th passing offense (222.2 ypg) / 22nd in rushing offense (110 ypg)

- 22nd in total defense / 27th in passing defense (241.6 ypg) / 10th in rushing defense (100.4 ypg)

- 25.2 points per game / 25 points allowed per game

- 346.5 yards per game / 359.8 yards allowed per game

- 5-5 ATS / 2-1 ATS after a loss

- Buccaneers are 4-2 on the road

- Buccaneers have lost their last two games

- Emeka Egbuka has only one touchdown in the last five games

- Averaging 9.4 targets over that span

- Buccaneers are 10-16 all time vs Rams

Rams:

- 8th in total offense / 6th in passing offense (246.9 ypg) / 18th in rushing offense (114 ypg)

- 13th in total defense / 21st in passing defense (222.3 ypg) / 11th in rushing defense (100.7 ypg)

- 27.2 points per game / 17.2 points allowed per game

- 369.7 yards per game / 341 yards allowed per game

- 7-3 ATS / 3-2 ATS at home

- 4-3 ATS after a win

- Rams have won 5-straight games

- Matt Stafford is 4-3 vs the Buccaneers all time in his career

- Matt Stafford hasn’t thrown an interception in 7-straight games

- Davante Adams has scored a touchdown in 4-straight games

Odds per DraftKings Sportsbook: Rams -7 / Total O/U 49.5 / Buccaneers ML +280

Best Bets:

  1. Rams -7 (-105)

- This game should be a shootout even though the Buccaneers have found themselves on a two game slide. With that being said I like the Rams and the points in a primetime game where Matt Stafford and this electric Rams offense should put up points early and often. The Buccaneers are still without Mike Evans and Bucky Irving which does not give me a lot of confidence that the Buccaneers offense will be able to match the output of the Rams. The Rams are a Super Bowl contender and I can see them covering the spread on their way to their sixth-straight win. Even if the Rams only win by seven, you will still get your money back with a push since it is sitting at -7.

  1. Puka Nacua anytime touchdown (-115)

- Puka Nacua had a phenomenal start to the NFL season after suffering some minor injuries. Nacua is still the WR1 for the Rams which is a major reason why I like him to score this week as all eyes will be on Devante Adams, especially when the Rams are in the Redzone. Nacua has found the endzone in 4/6 games and with his odds at close to even money I like the value especially since Adams’ odds to score are -170. Nacua will have a big role on Sunday night as he always does but he should find paydirt en route to a big home win for the Rams

  1. Baker Mayfield over 241.5 passing yards (-112)

- Baker Mayfield is the engine to this Buccaneers offense mainly due to how banged up the Buccaneers have been all season. Mayfield averages 236.5 passing yards and he will need to clear this number on Sunday if Tampa Bay is going to have a chance to win against an explosive Rams offense but also very capable defense. The Rams secondary is the weaker part of the defensive unit and I think Mayfield will be playing from behind for the majority of the game which will force him to look downfield. Even though Chris Godwin and Mike Evans have been hurt, Emeka Egbuka and Tez Johnson have been reliable pass catchers for Mayfield which can only continue to help Mayfield in a major primetime game.

Injury Report

Buccaneers

This week’s Banged Up Score: 77.4

Week 8: 73.8

Week 9: BYE

Week 10: 75.5

Week 11: 75.8

The Buccaneer’s BUS is slowly climbing but the continued absence of starting RB Bucky Irving and OL Ben Bredeson isn’t helping. Irving has been nursing foot and shoulder issues and there has been speculation about non-football related concerns as well. Bredeson sustained a hamstring injury in week 10 that took him out of the game. A big boost for the offense is the possible return of WR Chris Godwin who may be ready to attempt a second return from a brutal ankle dislocation in week 7 of the 2024 season. He did play in weeks 4 and 5 but logged only 3 receptions per game before leaving with a fibula injury on the same side as his prior ankle dislocation. The Buccaneers stated that the injury was in a different area of the bone than he had surgery on last year, but that’s not to say the trauma from the dislocation and change in strength and mobility of the ankle didn’t contribute to the new injury. With fellow WR Mike Evans on IR from a broken collarbone earlier this season, QB Baker Mayfield has been leaning on WRs Emeke Egbuka, WR Sterling Shepard and TE Cade Otton but would love to have the consistent presence and playmaking ability of pre-injury Chris Godwin back on the field. Defensively, the Bucs have some concerns at linebacker with Hasson Reddick out with ankle and knee injuries and backups Chris Braswell and Marqueese Watts listed as questionable. At CB, starter Jamel Dean is out with a hip flexor strain and backup Benjamin Morrison is questionable with a hamstring injury that gto him added to the injury report on Friday. Dean has struggled with hip and groin injuries previously this season and muscular issues around the hips and pelvis can significantly limit a defensive back’s ability to back pedal, match a receiver’s speed or flip their hips in coverage.

Rams

This week’s Banged Up Score: 81.2

Week 8: BYE

Week 9: 89.8

Week 10: 91.1

Week 11: 90.5

While the weekly injury report doesn’t look too bad, The LA Rams’ BUS hit a bump this week when three starters were put on IR and will miss at least 4 weeks. TE Tyler Higbee has an ankle injury and OL Rob Havenstein is dealing with ankle and knee bursitis. Bursitis is a painful condition where pockets of fluid that separate and cushion other structures (ie tendons and bones) get inflamed, which can limit range of motion and strength around the affected muscles or joints. OL David Quessenberry was a late addition to the report with a groin injury on Saturday, so the Rams will be missing depth on the O line which the Buccaneers may look to take advantage of. S Quentin Lake suffered a dislocated elbow which required surgery so will likely be out more than the minimum 4 weeks. On special teams, WR Xavier Smith who serves as the starting punt returner is questionable with a concussion, but the team has stated that it’s looking promising for him to play.

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