Week 12 TNF Preview: Bills vs. Texans

Written by: Miles Jordan,William Petersen •

Share on:

• • •

Player Updates

Fantasy Football

Injury Round Up

The Banged Up Score (BUS)

Bills vs. Texans

Week 12 of the 2025 NFL season kicks off with a Thursday night football game matchup between the Buffalo Bills and the Houston Texans. Buffalo is on the hunt for its fourth win in its past five games, while Houston is looking for its third consecutive win, despite losing quarterback CJ Stroud to a concussion.

Buffalo

The Bills (7-3) have been led by quarterback Josh Allen, who has thrown for 2,456 passing yards and 18 touchdowns, while rushing for another 351 yards and 10 touchdowns. Allen is coming off a six-touchdown performance against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, when he threw for 317 yards and three touchdowns, and rushed for 40 and another three scores.

Running back James Cook has notched a team-high 968 rushing yards and seven touchdowns, while racking up 21 receptions for 190 yards and a touchdown. Cook is Buffalo’s primary back, and Allen is a close second as he tallied the second-most carries on the team.

Kalil Shakir is Buffalo’s leading receiver and has caught 46 receptions for 454 receiving yards and three touchdowns, while Allen’s second favorite target - tight end Dalton Kincaid - has been ruled out for Thursday night with a hamstring injury. It is now the second consecutive game that Kincaid has missed, after being sidelined for Buffalo’s win over Tampa Bay in Week 11.

Wide receiver Keon Coleman also missed the Bills’ Week 11 contest due to a non-injury-related issue, and will dress and play tonight against Houston. Coleman is second on the team in receptions (32) and has tallied 330 receiving yards and three touchdowns.

Houston

The Texans will be without starting quarterback CJ Stroud for the third consecutive week, after he suffered a concussion against the Denver Broncos on Nov. 2. Backup quarterback Davis Mills started the last two contests for Houston, and has tossed three touchdowns and one interception in his two starts. Mills has led the Texans to back-to-back victories over the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Tennessee Titans and is now on the hunt for his third win of the season.

In the backfield, running back Nick Chubb has recorded 99 carries for 419 rushing yards and two scores, and has split carries with Will Marks, who has also recorded exactly 99 carries for 348 yards and two scores. Expect the pair to split carries again tonight.

Mills will once again have a plethora of receivers at his disposal, spanning from wide receivers Nico Collins, Xavier Hutchinson and Jayden Higgins, and tight end Dalton Schultz - the team's leading receiver.

Schultz has caught 51 passes for 489 yards and a touchdown, and has been one of Houston’s most reliable receivers, catching 75% of his targets. Collins leads the team in receiving touchdowns (4) and has notched 49 receptions for 642 yards, despite missing a game due to injury.

Stats to know:

Bills:

- 2nd in total offense / 8th in passing offense (239.8 ypg) / 1st in rushing offense (147.6 ypg)

- 12th in total defense / 2nd in passing defense (169.7 ypg) / 31st in rushing defense (153 ypg)

- 29.2 points per game / 22.9 points allowed per game

- 398.6 ypg / 338.8 yards allowed per game

- 5-5 ATS / 2-4 ATS after a win

- 2-2 ATS as road team

- 3-4 ATS as a favorite of 5.5 points or more

- Bills are 5-6 against the Texans all-time

- Josh Allen is 1-2 vs the Texans all-time (both losses on the road)

Texans:

- 19th total offense / 16th in passing offense (222 ypg) /23rd in rushing offense (107.6 ypg)

- 1st in total defense / 3rd in passing defense (171 ypg) / 3rd in rushing defense (87.1 ypg)

- 22 points per game / 16.3 points allowed per game

- 350.4 ypg / 277.1 ypg

- 4-6 ATS / 1-3 after a win

- 3-2 ATS as home team

- Davis Mills is 7-19-1 as a starter / 5-20-1 record ATS (20%)

- Nico Collins had two catches for 78 yards and a touchdown in only game vs Bills

Odds per DraftKings Sportsbook: Bills -5.5 / Total O/U 43.5 / Texans +235

Best bets:

  1. Woody Marks anytime touchdown (+125)
  • The Texans have had an interesting backfield this season after Joe Mixon had to get season-ending ankle surgery in the preseason. Many believed Nick Chubb would be the RB1 after the resumé he compiled in his time in Cleveland. Coming into Week 12, Woody Marks has now taken over that role after averaging 12.6 carries per game to Chubb's 11.6 carries over the last five games. Marks was supposed to have a big week last week against the Titans, but the Texans' offense has been up and down all season, with Marks being unable to beat the adversity that the offense faced in Week 11. I love Marks to get into the endzone on Thursday due to how bad the Bills rushing defense is. They allow 153 rushing yards per game and have allowed 17 rushing touchdowns this season. Those numbers speak for themselves as well as the Texans desire to get to 6-5 and extend their winning streak to three straight games. The fact as well that there is some juice with +125 makes this pick almost a no-brainer in a primetime game where the Texans will need to dominate the trenches and ground game if they want to get a win on Thursday night.
  1. Josh Allen to throw an interception (-110)

- This may seem like an absolute hater pick after the performance the reigning MVP put on last week with six total touchdowns, but I think Josh Allen will come back to Earth a little bit given how good the Texans defense is. Houston is the top-ranked defense in the league through eleven weeks, and I think the Texans will give Allen a run for his money with their pass rush and solid secondary. The Bills do not have a clear WR1, which allows Derek Stingley Jr to roam more freely, giving the Bills an advantage on defense. Allen also loves to make throws on the run, whether it's a good decision or not, and I think he will force a pass against a Texans secondary that allows less than 175 passing yards per game. Allen hasn’t thrown an interception in three-straight games but something tells me he is due to on a primetime game against the best defense in the world.

  1. Texans +5.5

- This pick may seem somewhat irrational after the performance Josh Allen and the Bills put on last week, with six total touchdowns and a twelve point win over the Buccaneers but this primetime game will be much closer than people expect. As stated above, the Texans have a top three defense in the NFL which will keep this game close due to how lopsided the Bills offense is compared to their defense. Primetime games normally go the opposite direction of what the public favors, so I think the Texans are keeping it close and covering.

Injury Report:

Bills

Going into Week 12, the Buffalo Bills will be without starting TE Dalton Kinkaid and WRs Mecole Hardman and Curtis Samuel. Kalil Shakir missed several practices this week for the birth of his child, but should be active for the game. Hardman’s absence will also impact special teams as he’s one of Buffalo’s returners. Allen will be missing some key parts of his receiving corps, but luckily starting center Conner McGovern was a full participant on Wednesday after an ankle injury. Defensively, the Bills have a number of players on IR, but the good news is that the majority of players on the injury report for this week were active in week 11 and are continuing to improve, but had limited practices as a precaution to get them as healthy as possible on a short week. DE Joey Bosa, who has been playing through a wrist injury continues to improve, and LB Terrel Bernard are both expected to play, which is big for the Buffalo defence.

Banged up score:

Week 8: 85.3

Week 9: 81.8

Week 10: 83.9

Week 11: 81.1

Texans

The biggest storyline for the Texans going into the primetime matchup is that QB CJ Stroud is out with a concussion. Stroud returned to limited practice on Tuesday, which is positive, but he won’t be ready to play against the Bills. Backup QB Davis Mills will start again, and luckily for him, he’ll have his full receiving corps, including TE Dalton Shultz, who has been playing through a shoulder injury. Mills was listed on the injury report with a left elbow injury, but was a full participant in all practices. The Texans' defence also had plenty of names on the injury report this week and will miss the presence of S Jordan Pitre, who is missing his 3 rd game with a concussion. Backup free safety Jimmie Ward is also ruled out, and the Texans have 2 other DBs on IR. Hopefully, the lack of depth in the defensive backfield doesn’t expose the Texans' defence as they face Josh Allen.

Banged up scores:

Week 8: 78.7

Week 9: 81.3

Week 10: 69.6

Week 11: 71.8

Recent Posts: