A pivotal NFC South showdown arrives on a short week as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers host the Atlanta Falcons on Thursday Night Football.
Tampa Bay returns home reeling from a disappointing loss to the Saints, which dropped the Bucs to 7–6 and shrank their once-comfortable divisional lead to almost nothing. Atlanta, at 1–3 since Kirk Cousins replaced an injured Michael Penix Jr., is equally desperate to stabilize its season. Both teams are battered, both are flawed, and both know this game could determine whether they remain serious contenders in the race for the NFC South crown.
Week 15 TNF preview:
Atlanta
Atlanta enters Thursday night limping, both literally and figuratively. The Falcons have been shredded by injuries across their offense, losing Drake London to a knee issue and watching tight end Kyle Pitts battle through one of his own. Pitts is questionable but crucial; in the three games London has missed, he has emerged as their only reliable chain mover, hauling in 15 catches for 197 yards. No other Falcons pass catcher has cracked even 100 yards in that span.
Kirk Cousins, who threw for nearly 800 yards and eight touchdowns in two games against Tampa Bay last season, hasn’t found similar traction since taking over for Penix. Still, Cousins is leaning heavily on Pitts (26 targets in four starts) and could again turn to him early and often. Without Pitts at full strength, Atlanta’s passing game becomes worryingly thin.
On the ground, Bijan Robinson remains the centerpiece. Even with the offense banged up, Robinson’s explosiveness gives Atlanta a chance to control tempo and keep Tampa Bay’s offense on the sideline. Defensively, the Falcons have struggled in recent weeks, but rookie pass rusher James Pearce Jr. continues to flash game-changing potential off the edge. Atlanta will need that pressure, particularly against a Buccaneers offense that has sputtered since midseason.
Tampa Bay
The Buccaneers enter Thursday knowing they still control their destiny in the NFC South, but only barely. Losers of four of their last five, they’ve scored just 59 points across their last 14 quarters, and Baker Mayfield’s early-season MVP buzz has evaporated amid a string of injuries and inconsistency.
Over the past four games, Mayfield has completed only 54.3% of his passes for 530 yards with four touchdowns and four interceptions. His supporting cast hasn’t helped, with rookie receiver Emeka Egbuka battling drops and the interior offensive line weakened by injuries, including Ben Bredeson landing on IR.
Tampa Bay may get Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan back, though both are questionable. With divisional heavyweight Carolina looming in Week 16, the Bucs must weigh immediate needs against long-term durability, but given the must-win nature of Thursday’s game, offensive firepower might be too valuable to rest.
Defensively, the Bucs are just as banged up. Losing Tykee Smith and Haason Reddick last week forced Tampa Bay to bring in 36-year-old Jason Pierre-Paul for emergency depth. Several other defenders, including linebacker SirVocea Dennis and DBs Christian Izien, Benjamin Morrison, and Rashad Wisdom, are also dealing with injuries. That leaves Tampa Bay thin at all three levels.
The good news? The Falcons don’t have a mobile quarterback, something that has burned Tampa repeatedly this season, and Atlanta’s offense, littered with injuries, may give the Bucs’ defense a chance to regroup. But Bijan Robinson will test a front seven that has struggled with missed tackles and gap discipline in recent weeks. Tampa Bay must also shore up its special teams, which have repeatedly gifted opponents favorable field position.
Stats to know
Falcons
- 16th in total offense / 18th in passing offense (206.4 ypg) / 12th in rushing offense (123.6 ypg)
- 14th in total defense / 9th in passing defense (191.5 ypg) / 24th in rushing defense (131 ypg)
- 19.4 points per game / 24.1 points allowed to opponents per game
- 341.1 yards per game / 343.7 yards allowed to opponents per game
- 5-7-1 ATS / 2-5 SU on the road / 3-3 ATS as the away team
- 4-3-1 ATS after a loss / 4-1-1 ATS as an underdog / 3-0 ATS as an away underdog
- Falcons are 1-7 in their last 8 games
- Falcons are 32-32 vs the Buccaneers in regular season all-time
- Kirk Cousins is 14-21 SU in primetime games
- Kirk Cousins is 6-4 in his last 10 primetime games
Buccaneers
- 22nd in total offense / 20th in passing offense (199.8 ypg) / 20th in rushing offense (115.2 ypg)
- 21st in total defense / 27th in passing defense (237.8 ypg) / 8th in rushing defense (100.6 ypg)
- 23 points per game / 25 points allowed to opponents per game
- 329.3 yards per game / 355.4 yards allowed to opponents per game
- 5-8 ATS / 3-3 SU at home / 2-4 ATS as the home team
- 2-3 ATS after a loss / 2-4 ATS as a favorite / 1-4 ATS as a home favorite
- Buccaneers are 3-5 in their last 8 games
- Baker Mayfield is 8-9 in primetime games all-time
- Baker Mayfield is 5-1 SU on Thursday Night Football
Odds per DraftKings Sportsbook: Buccaneers -4.5 / Total O/U 44.5 / Falcons ML +195
Best Bets
- Falcons +4.5
- This week’s Thursday night game will be an interesting one, given how bad both of these teams have been playing the last couple of weeks. Atlanta has not found much success after losing Michael Penix Jr. to a torn ACL, and now has a big divisional game on primetime with Kirk Cousins at the helm again. Cousins is known for losing primetime games but has improved over the last couple of seasons. While Cousins playing quarterback doesn't make me feel solid about the Falcons covering the spread, their undefeated record against the spread as a road dog entices me into thinking the Falcons will keep it close and cover. Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers offense have been injury-ridden and not nearly as sharp as last season. With that being said, the primetime rivalry games always seem to be flukey, and the public is riding heavily with the Falcons, which further affirms the Falcons will cover on Thursday Night.
- Bucky Irving anytime touchdown (+120
- While Bucky Irving missed the majority of the season with injuries and personal matters, he is still one of the most explosive running backs in the NFL. He scored in his first game back two weeks ago and will need to have an impact in the run and pass game if the Bucs are going to win their eighth game of the season and take sole possession of the NFC South. Baker Mayfield thrives when he can find Irving out of the backfield, and with how bad the Falcons' run defense is, it seems likely that he will make an impact. The Falcons allow 131 yards per game on the ground, which sets Irving up for a big game, and if Bucky can break a big run, it will not be surprising if he takes it all the way to the house.
Injury Reports
Buccaneers
This week’s Banged Up Score (BUS): _____
Last 4 weeks’ BUS:
Week 11: 75.8
Week 12: 77.4
Week 13: 82.2
Week 14: 83.4
Game statuses ahead of Thursday Night Football 👇 pic.twitter.com/WjRXTRK5x9
— Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@Buccaneers) December 10, 2025
While some of the notable entries on the Buccaneers’ injury report are important pieces of the passing game, for once, this is actually a good thing. Star WR Mike Evans was activated from IR after suffering a collarbone fracture early in the year. He is listed as questionable, but head coach Todd Bowles was optimistic in a Wednesday press conference. Another WR in a similar situation is Jalen McMillan, who has missed every game this season with a neck injury but was also activated recently in hopes of seeing the field this week. The boost of seeing Evans and McMillan back on the field may help make up for starting TE Cade Otton being doubtful with a knee injury he sustained last Sunday. The Buccaneers’ defense isn’t getting quite the same boost as the offense, as S Rashad Wisdom won’t be activated from IR this week, despite logging practice time. Starting S Tykee Smith (neck/shoulder) and LB SirVocea Dennis (hip) are also doubtful and out, respectively. Smith and Dennis are tied as team leaders in solo tackles this season. While Dennis’ season has had ups and downs, the Buccaneers defense needs all the help it can get after losing 4 of the last 5 games, including giving up 34 points to the Rams and 44 points to the Bills.
Falcons
This week’s Banged Up Score (BUS): ____
Last 4 weeks’ BUS:
Week 11: 75.1
Week 12: 67.2
Week 13: 73.0
Week 14: 71.9
Drake London has been ruled OUT. Kyle Pitts and three defensive starters are QUESTIONABLE. https://t.co/SWOgmvrVTS
— Tori McElhaney (@tori_mcelhaney) December 10, 2025
The Falcons will be coming into the prime-time game without WR Drake London and possibly without TE Kyle Pitts, who both have knee injuries. London and Pitts are the Falcons’ leaders in receptions, receiving yards, and London leads the team in receiving TDs despite missing the last 3 games. The defensive line also has some big question marks with starting DT David Onyemata dealing with a foot injury and backup DL Brandon Dorlus with a groin injury. LB Jalon Walker, who brings major versatility and can line up at DE, is questionable with a quad injury, but head coach Raheem Morris has made optimistic comments about him playing this week. Walker has 5 sacks, adding up to 44 yards lost by opposing QBs in his rookie season.
