Buccaneers WR Mike Evans left Sunday’s week 3 win over the Jets with a hamstring strain. Per ESPN Evans was rostered in over 99% of fantasy leagues and was on field for more than 70% of offensive snaps over the first three weeks of the season, making this injury significant for fantasy owners. Evans is the clear number one receiver on the Buccaneers squad, so hanging on to him in expectation of his return makes a lot of sense. But what should you expect when he comes back?
Our analysis of receivers returning from hamstring injuries show an overall average of 11.4% decrease in snap percentage. For a player averaging 78.3% of snaps over the first 3 weeks, losing approximately 11% would drop him to around 67%, which is lower than most WR1 options. But snap percentage doesn’t necessarily equate production. Our data shows average receptions for WRs returning from hamstring injuries only dropped 3.3% despite the drop in snap percentage, meaning that when on the field they were still seeing a high number of targets, which will matter most in PPR formats. In standard scoring leagues where yards and touchdowns matter most for receivers, our data shows a 9.4% decrease in receiving yards. If you look at Evans production in weeks 1 and 2, he put up 51 and 56 yards respectively with 0 touchdowns, although he did see the end zone before leaving the game in week 3.
All that being said, these stats are averages based on statistical analysis of years worth of injury data, so there is no guarantee Evans will follow these trends. In fact, last year when Evans returned from a similar hamstring injury, his snap percentage increased by 0.1% to 75.4% and his receiving yards went up by an average of 44 yards per game compared to what he averaged before the hamstring injury. His targets upon return last year may have been inflated by Chris Godwin’s absence, but he clearly showed his ability to bounce back. The biggest concern may be the red flag raised by Evans missing games 2 seasons in a row with hamstring injuries. Hamstring strains are one of the most common repeat injuries in the NFL, with 38.4% of hamstring injuries between 2009-2020 being repeat injuries. Hopefully he bounces back with similar production like he did last year, but it may be a buyer beware situation for 2026 fantasy drafts.
