AFC Championship preview: Broncos vs. Patriots

Written by: Miles Jordan,William Petersen •

Share on:

• • •

Player Updates

The Banged Up Score (BUS)

Injury Round Up

Drake Maye

The last time the Patriots and Broncos met in the postseason in Denver, it was Tom Brady squaring off with Peyton Manning. A decade later, the AFC Championship matchup features two quarterbacks few would have predicted at the start of the season.

Drake Maye and New England recovered from a 1–2 start to rip off 15 wins in their last 16 games, including the playoffs, with Maye emerging as an MVP candidate in his second season. On the other sideline, Denver’s quarterback situation is far more surprising. Former Patriots QB Jarrett Stidham is set to start after Bo Nix fractured his ankle in overtime of last week’s Divisional Round win, thrusting Stidham into his first start in two years with a Super Bowl berth on the line.

The matchup is full of contrasts and history. The Patriots are a perfect 8–0 on the road this season but are 0–4 all-time in playoff games played in Denver. While the Broncos are shorthanded without Nix, their defense remains a formidable challenge, even for a high-powered New England offense.

Much of the focus will fall on Stidham, who hasn’t attempted a regular-season pass in two years. A former fourth-round pick of the Patriots, Stidham entered the league under current New England offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels and later followed him to Las Vegas. Denver’s offense is expected to look different without Nix’s athleticism and designed quarterback runs. Stidham is more of a pocket passer with solid arm talent and timing when protected, but he can struggle under pressure. Sean Payton is likely to lean on a quick passing game, in-breaking routes, and a heavier run emphasis, hoping an early score can help Stidham settle in. That task is complicated by injuries along the Broncos’ offense and a Patriots defense that has allowed just 19 points combined in two playoff games, generating nine sacks and six takeaways.

On the other side, Maye faces his toughest test yet against Denver’s aggressive pass rush. New England’s pass protection has been shaky in the postseason, surrendering 10 sacks and 31 pressures, while Maye has put the ball on the ground six times. The Broncos harassed Josh Allen into four turnovers last week and present a dangerous matchup, particularly with edge rusher Nik Bonitto facing rookie left tackle Will Campbell. To keep Denver’s defense honest, the Patriots will need more consistent production from Stefon Diggs and Hunter Henry, along with continued contributions from Kayshon Boutte, Rhamondre Stevenson, and the rest of the supporting cast.

The run game could be a swing factor. New England appears to have an edge on paper, with Stevenson running efficiently and Maye adding value as a scrambler, but Denver’s rush defense was elite during the regular season. Still, the Bills gashed the Broncos for 183 rushing yards last week, and mobile quarterbacks have caused problems for Denver at times. Conversely, the Broncos’ own ground game faces questions with Nix out and J.K. Dobbins working his way back from a long absence. If Dobbins is able to return, it would provide a major boost for an offense trying to protect Stidham and keep the Patriots’ defense off balance.

At altitude, with history looming and a Super Bowl trip at stake, something will have to give between New England’s road dominance and Denver’s long-standing home postseason edge.

Stats to know

Patriots playoff averages

- 349 total yards per game / 189 passing yards per game  /125.5 rushing yards per game

- 253 total yards allowed per game / 156.5 passing yards allowed per game / 67.5 rushing yards allowed per game

- Averaging 22 points per game / Averaging 9.5 points allowed per game

- Patriots are 0-4 SU all time in Denver in the playoffs

- Patriots are 2-0 ATS during this playoff run

- Patriots are 3-1 ATS as a road favorite in the regular season

- Mike Vrabel is 0-1 SU in the AFC Championship

- Drake Maye is 12-0 SU as a 3+ point favorite in his career

Broncos playoff averages

- 349 total yards per game / 279 passing yards per game / 70 rushing yards per game

- 466 total yards allowed per game / 266 passing yards allowed per game / 183 rushing yards allowed per game

- Averaging 33 points per game / Averaging 30 points allowed per game

- Broncos are 8-2 SU all-time in AFC Championship

- Jarrett Stidham is 1-3 SU as a starter

- Stidham in those four starts has 1,422 passing yards, 8 touchdown passes, and 8 interceptions

- Home underdogs are 9-0 ATs as 4+ point underdogs over the last 50 years

- Sean Payton is 10-9 SU all-time in the playoffs

Odds per DraftKings Sportsbook: Patriots

Injury Report

Patriots

The biggest news on the Patriot’s injury report this week is that LB Harold Landry III is out with a knee injury. Landry is a defensive captain, led the team in sacks and tied for most tackles for loss. Positive news for New England’s defense is that CB Carlton Davis was a full participant in Friday’s practice. Davis caught 2 interceptions in the divisional game against the Texans before leaving with a concussion. If he’s able to play, Davis could see the opportunity to add to his playoff stats as he’s facing an untested backup QB with the Broncos.

Broncos

The headlines for the Broncos going into the conference championships have largely focused on the untimely and improbable injury that has knocked starting QB Bo Nix out for the rest of the playoffs. Nix suffered a right ankle fracture on one of the last plays of the game and although he finished the game and walked off the field,  the team has released that he has now had surgery to fix the fracture. In addition to Nix, the Broncos will be missing RB JK Dobbins, who has led the team in rushing yards. The emergence of RJ Harvey in the Broncos backfield this season is the bright spot this offence needs as they try to keep their playoff run alive without their QB or top rusher. Another positive is that fill-in QB Jarett Sidham will have WR Pat Bryant as an available target, as Bryant was a full participant in practice and has cleared the concussion protocol.