NFC Championship preview: Rams vs. Seahawks

Written by: Miles Jordan •

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The most anticipated matchup in the NFC has arrived, with two division rivals set to meet for a third time this season and a trip to the Super Bowl on the line. The Rams and Seahawks split two regular-season thrillers, and now their rubber match will decide the conference champion. For Los Angeles, a win would mean a return to the Super Bowl they reached and won following the 2021 season. For Seattle, it would mark the culmination of a season-long effort to move beyond past accomplishments and chase something bigger.

The earlier meetings offer context but little clarity. In Week 11, turnovers doomed the Seahawks in a narrow, frustrating loss in Los Angeles. In Week 16, Seattle flipped the script, mounting a frantic, relentless comeback to earn revenge at home. This will be just the third time in NFL history that teams who split a regular-season series by a combined margin of one point or fewer have met in a conference championship game. The previous two ended in double-digit victories, but the feel of this matchup suggests something far tighter on Sunday night.

Pressure is likely to define the game on both sides. Seattle’s defense has been built on disruption, generating pressure on 38.9 percent of opposing dropbacks despite one of the league’s lowest blitz rates. The Seahawks spread the production across their roster, rarely rely on base defense, and pair their pass rush with coverage that ranks among the NFL’s best in both man and zone. That approach could be especially effective against Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford, who owns the lowest passer rating under pressure of any quarterback still playing in the postseason. Yet Stafford has also shown extremes against Seattle this season, posting both his lowest and highest passing-yard totals of the year in the two meetings. Which version shows up could swing the game.

On the other side, Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold has struggled when pressured, leading the league in giveaways and committing more than half of them under duress. His history against the Rams is especially troubling, with eight giveaways in four games since Chris Shula became defensive coordinator. For both teams, the path forward is clear: affect the quarterback, and the rest may follow.

Seattle’s offense faces an additional challenge without Zach Charbonnet, who suffered a torn ACL in the Divisional Round. The Seahawks’ late-season surge has been fueled in part by a powerful running game, averaging more than 170 rushing yards per game since Week 16. That success leaned heavily on a two-back rotation with Charbonnet and Kenneth Walker III. With Charbonnet sidelined, Walker must carry a heavier load. He’s been productive against the Rams, including a 164-yard performance in their Week 16 win, but the pressure will be greater as the lone focal point in the backfield. If Seattle can’t establish the run, the burden shifts to Darnold in a matchup that favors Los Angeles.

Experience versus momentum also looms large. Both teams are led by young head coaches, but their résumés differ dramatically. Sean McVay has already guided the Rams to two Super Bowl appearances, owns 10 playoff wins, and will coach his 16th postseason game Sunday. Mike Macdonald, meanwhile, is in just his second season as Seattle’s head coach and coached his first playoff game last week. If the Seahawks win, Macdonald would become one of the youngest coaches ever to lead a team to the Super Bowl. Seattle enters on an eight-game winning streak with a defense peaking at the right time, but McVay’s postseason experience and Stafford’s championship pedigree remain formidable counters.

Something will give when the teams meet for a third time. The margins have been razor-thin so far, and with everything at stake, Sunday night’s NFC Championship Game appears destined to be decided the same way.

Stats to know

Rams playoff averages

- 394 yards per game / 262 passing yards per game / 113.5 rushing yards per game

- 382 yards allowed per game / 253 passing yards allowed per game / 121 rushing yards allowed per game

- Averaging 27 points per game / Averaging 24 points allowed per game

- Rams are 0-2 ATS in this playoffs

- Sean McVay is 10-5 SU in the playoffs all-time

- Sean McVay is 2-0 SU in the NFC Championship all-time

- Matt Stafford is 7-5 SU in the playoffs all-time

- 7-2 SU with the Rams

Seahawks playoff averages

- 299 yards per game / 124 passing yards per game / 175 rushing yards per game

- 252 yards allowed per game / 128 passing yards allowed per game / 108 rushing yards allowed per game

- Averaging 41 points per game / Averaging 6 points allowed per game

- Sam Darnold is 1-1 SU in the playoffs all-time

- Sam Darnold is 2-4 SU vs the Rams all-time

- Seahawks are 1-0 ATS this playoffs

- Seahawks are 29-28 SU vs the Rams all-time

- In those games, the Seahawks have scored a total of 1,223 points while the Rams have scored 1,222

Odds per DraftKings Sportsbook: Seahawks

The LA Rams are looking healthy at the right time. The biggest injury on the LA Ram’s radar right now is LB Byron Young, who sustained a knee injury in the playoff matchup against the Bears last week. Young sat out of practices this week, even though the Rams kept it light with walk-throughs, but head coach Sean McVay expressed that Young is expected to play Sunday. Young has 12 sacks on the season and a forced fumble, and the Rams will rely on him to contribute in stopping the Seattle offence. CB Emmanuel Forbes Jr has also been on the injury report with a shoulder injury, but he is also expected to play this weekend.

Injury Report

Rams

The LA Rams are looking healthy at the right time. The biggest injury on the LA Ram’s radar right now is LB Byron Young, who sustained a knee injury in the playoff matchup against the Bears last week. Young sat out of practices this week, even though the Rams kept it light with walk-throughs, but head coach Sean McVay expressed that Young is expected to play Sunday. Young has 12 sacks on the season and a forced fumble, and the Rams will rely on him to contribute in stopping the Seattle offence. CB Emmanuel Forbes Jr has also been on the injury report with a shoulder injury, but he is also expected to play this weekend.

Seahawks

The Seahawks are coming off a dominant win over the 49ers, but they didn’t escape completely unscathed. RB Zach Charbonnet has been placed on IR after tearing his ACL last week. Charbonnet has been a major redzone threat for the Seahawks, leading the team with 12 touchdowns on the season. RB Kenneth Walker III will carry a greater load than normal, since backups George Holani and Kenny McIntosh are also on IR. We may also see a shift towards more passing plays near the goal line without Charbonnet. Another significant area of concern is the offensive tackle position, where starting LT Charles Cross missed 3 games prior to the divisional round, then left last week’s game before half time with a foot injury. Cross didn’t practice Wednesday or Thursday so it’s still unclear if his limited playing time last week was from an exacerbation of the foot injury, or just being extra careful since the Seahawks already had a strong lead when he was pulled.

To add to the challenges at left tackle, second and third stringers Josh Jones (knee/ankle) and Amari Kight (knee) are also both questionable and have not practiced this week. The lack of depth on the O line may present a problem for QB Sam Darnold, who is battling his own injuries after sustaining an oblique injury in practice last week. An oblique injury in a QB is particularly challenging since the oblique muscles are largely responsible for twisting the torso through the throwing motion, so any weakness or pain may limit his ability to air the ball out.